FXUS61 KGYX 110814
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA....BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL DRIFT INTO THE MARITIMES
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY
IMPACT THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY ON
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BECOME STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE
VERTICALLY ALIGNED...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES...AND DIURNAL
MIXING INCREASES. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT THEY'LL MAKE IT TO THE INTERIOR/COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AS DIURNAL MIXING DIMINISHES. UPSLOPE AREAS OF MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
GRADUALLY DRY THE AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM 500MB FLOW TO REMAIN FAST WITH LARGE SCALE...BUT POORLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGHS AND RIDGES....AS HEMISPHERIC FLOW STILL CANNOT
SETTLE INTO A MORE STABLE PATTERN.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AS STRONG SFC LOW N OF LABRADOR
AND HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO PUT THE SQUEEZE ON
NRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL MAKE INROADS
TO THE N SAT NIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. SUNDAY LOOKS A BIT
WARMER...TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...BUT WILL ALSO INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR SE. MODELS
SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT THAT SYSTEM STAYS FAR ENOUGH S TO LIMIT ITS
IMPACT ON CWA...BUT WE STILL COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW SUN NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN 500MB SW FLOW FOR MON...AND THIS WILL
HELP WARM THINGS UP A BIT...WITH MAX TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA TUE/WED...AND
THOUGH THIS COULD HAVE GREATER IMPACT ON CWA...MODELS ARE SHOWING
LESS AGREEMENT THAN THE SYSTEM ON SUN NIGHT...AS TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES ARE TOO GREAT TO RESOLVE AT THIS POINT...AND WILL GO
WITH CHC POPS IN THE TUE-WED PERIOD. IT LOOKS TO TURN COLD AND
WINDY AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WITH MAX
GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. IN MOUNTAINS...MAX GUSTS COULD REACH 40 TO 45 KTS.
LONG TERM...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN STORE ON SAT...WITH NW WINGS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KTS FOR ONE MORE DAY. VFR IS EXPECTED SAT THRU
TUE...WITH ONE EXCEPTION...AND THAT IS THE CHC OF A PERIOD LIGHT
SNOW SUN NIGHT...WHICH COULD LOWER CONDS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... GALE WARNING CONTINUES. WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 TO 45
KTS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS REMAINING FAIRLY
HIGH. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...BUT WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE WATERS...AND WILL LKLY SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SUN NIGHT RIGHT INTO THE WEEK...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE NIGHT OR WED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
