FXUS64 KLZK 151100
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST
SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NRN SITES...AND BY NOON ACROSS SRN SITES. NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AND PICK UP IN STRENGTH BY MIDDAY...MAINLY AROUND 10-12
KTS...BEFORE RELAXING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. OTHERWISE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS WITH A CLEARING SKY.
THE HIGH WILL BRING DRIER/COLDER AIR TO ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A
STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND COMBINED WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID
SOUTH EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. AT THIS TIME...TEMP PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY SATURDAY...THEN RAIN DURING SAT
AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PRECIP
LINGERING FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE SAT BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...WITH ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 41 22 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 48 28 50 30 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 38 21 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 26 49 29 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 45 26 48 28 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 30 48 30 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 45 25 50 29 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 38 21 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 42 23 45 27 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 47 28 48 29 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 43 23 48 28 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 44 24 47 28 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 26 47 28 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
