FXUS64 KLZK 042024
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
224 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION. UPLIFT
NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE SYSTEM LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD
SQUEEZE A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN...AND THE SURFACE LOW GOES NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOW IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND WEST AND 20S ELSEWHERE. 

AIRMASS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL...AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH A
POSSIBLE MIX OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AND WEST BEFORE IT EXITS
ON MONDAY. 

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE GULF
COAST REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODERATING
SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY. 
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM...AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND 
KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS 
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN 
SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE BLENDED THE SOLUTIONS... 
BUT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS. THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE STATE 
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE 
RETURNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR 
BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     21  44  27  44 /  10   0  10  20 
CAMDEN AR         22  49  28  50 /  10   0  10  20 
HARRISON AR       17  43  27  42 /  10   0  10  20 
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  48  30  45 /  10   0  10  20 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  24  46  29  46 /  10   0  10  20 
MONTICELLO AR     26  47  27  51 /  20   0  10  20 
MOUNT IDA AR      20  47  31  43 /  10   0  10  20 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  21  44  24  44 /  10   0  10  20 
NEWPORT AR        23  45  30  45 /  10   0  10  20 
PINE BLUFF AR     26  46  29  48 /  10   0  10  20 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   19  46  26  42 /  10   0  10  20 
SEARCY AR         23  45  24  45 /  10   0  10  20 
STUTTGART AR      27  45  30  47 /  10   0  10  20 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...58