FXUS61 KOKX 100052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH...BRISK WESTERLY GRADIENT 
SETS UP...AND DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN COMPLEX FRONTAL SITUATION AND ATTENDANT
TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS. DON'T EXPECT WARM FRONT TO MAKE MUCH MORE
PROGRESS NORTH...ESPECTIALLY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS GIVEN
THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
IN THE LOWER HUDSON VLY...FAR NORTH NJ AND INTERIOR WESTERN CT
SEEING QUITE A BIT OF FOG AND HAVE UPDATED FCST TO REFLECT THAT.
COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST SHOULD TAKE CARE OF THAT
LATER THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE FCST AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
AFTER WE HAVE A CHANCE TO BETTER ASSESS WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SEE WHAT DEVELOPS OF AREA OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
PA. REMAINDER OF THE FCST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND CAA WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY 
SATURDAY. COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY...AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE 
ABOVE FREEZING ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.

BRISK WEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLIER. DRY WEATHER THOUGH 
PREVAILS...WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND 
WEST.

AS FOR MAX/MINS...WILL CHOP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF MOS...ESPECIALLY 
WHERE ANY SNOWPACK EXISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 1033 HI WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA 12Z SUN. THIS IS THE MOST 
CONFIDENT ASPECT OF THE FCST. 12Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER THEREAFTER. AT H5 
SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WAA DURING THE DAY SUN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO 
PRESENT A WET SOLN WITH LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT THE TIMING. ECMWF IS 
DRY. WITH DRASTIC WARMING AT H85 AND SLY BL WINDS DEVELOPING...PCPN 
WOULD BE SN TO SLEET TO RA COASTS WITH SNOW TO SLEET INTERIOR. POPS 
ARE IN THE LOW CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTN CAN 
BE EXPECTED.

DEEP H5 LOW WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY TUE NGT. SRN 
STREAM WILL ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF COAST. 
HOW THIS ENTIRE SCENARIO EVOLVES IS IN QUESTION. PREV RUNS HAVE 
HINTED AT A COASTAL...WHILE THE LATEST FEW CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TO A 
MORE BENIGN SOLN. OFFICIAL FCST CARRIES SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS TUE 
THRU EARLY WED WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN IN THE INTERIOR AND MIX/RA 
METRO AND COASTS. THE TIMING/PTYPE/INTENSITY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
IN THE MON-WED PERIOD AS CLEAR TRENDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BASED ON 00Z ANALYSIS...WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LYING IN A LINE
JUST NORTH OF KSMQ/KEWR/KGON..AND SITTING ON TOP OF KLGA/KTEB.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SW SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS LIFTING. HAVE LIFTED THE FRONT THROUGH KHPN AND KBDR AT
02Z...BUT IT MAY NOT MAKE IT. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z WITH STRONG W WINDS IN ITS WAKE. OBS UPSTREAM WERE
INDICATING PK WNDS BETWEEN 40-50 KT...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST...THEREFORE MAY HAVE WINDS
A BIT TOO HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS IT MOVES INTO NJ AND
AMEND ACCORDINGLY. WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIC BUT LEFT OF 310
DEG THROUGH 00Z FRI.

OUTLOOK 00Z THU THROUGH MONDAY... 
THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS. 
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. 
SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. 
MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A LULL IN THE WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS 
AND TRACKS TOWARDS SE CANADA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RE- TIGHTENS WITH 
A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH 
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED 
OVER ALL WATER TONIGHT. 

THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF 
CAA. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS 
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. HAVE EXTENDED GALE 
WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY 
BE MARGINAL ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE 
HOISTED A GALE WATCH DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SECOND PERIOD EVENT. 
GALES LIKELY ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

12 TO 18 FT SEAS ONLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT WITH STRONG 
OFFSHORE FLOW 8 TO 12 FT SEAS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST 
EAST. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT ON LI SOUND...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE RACE.

WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE 
CENTER OF THE BUILDING HIGH CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NEXT 
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS MAY BE SUN/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL 
LOW.

WITH STRONG AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
TIDAL DEPARTURES RUNNING 2 1/2 TO 3 1/2 FT BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LOW 
WATER PROBLEMS DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL 
BE ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THURS MORNING LOW TIDES.

HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE CSTL WATERS SUN WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN 
SUBSIDING BY SUNRISE. A COMPLEX SCENARIO THEN DEVELOPS IN THE SUN 
NGT THRU WED PERIOD. A WRMFNT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THE 
FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CDFNT FOLLOWING BY WED. BETWEEN 
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE REGION IS 
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH GALES 
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE LOW DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW ANY RIVERS/STREAMS TO 
RECEDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH OFFSHORE 
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
WESTERN SOUND...TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD FALL BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS 
AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ005-006-011.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM EST THURSDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MANNING
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...