FXUS63 KABR 100237 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
837 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.UPDATE...
DROPPED TEMPS A NOTCH...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY.  UPDATES OUT SOON. 

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN PUSHES NORTH INTO CANADA WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CANADA
TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY GETS
PUSHED SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE OR LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. 

WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO EASILY FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...WITH AREAS
ACROSS THE EAST LIKELY SEEING TEMPS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH OR
HIGHER...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SEE WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE
THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WILL SEE BELOW ZERO TEMPS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAK WAA KICKS IN ON FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS RISE FROM THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AND SHOULD RESULT IN
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT IN THE WORLD WITH LONG RANGE MODELS TODAY.
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
MODELS TRYING TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN STRENGTH. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED. TEMPERATURES ALSO
QUESTIONABLE IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS A
MODEST WARM UP IS EXPECTED...JUST A MATTER OF HOW MUCH. GFS MORE
ON THE COOLER SIDE THAN THE EC. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z
GFS HAS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING BY TUESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND -27C. THIS IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS THAT KEEP THINGS BOTTLED UP IN CANADA.
ALTHOUGH...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SITTING JUST ACROSS THE BORDER
IN CANADA SO THE RIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THIS AIR TO
BLEED DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MIGHT SNEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
MORNING.  VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.  

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR 
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN