FXUS61 KOKX 141746
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR A LARGE CANOPY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE
BREAKS AND SOME SUN SHINING THROUGH THE CIRRUS...LARGELY EXPECT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES APPROACH
THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BY MID WEEK. RIGHT
NOW THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WITH
REALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BEGIN INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
OUTGOING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPING ADVECT COLDER TEMPS DOWN FROM
CANADA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING GUSTS UPWARDS TO 40 MPH. WILL SEE HIGHS BEGIN
A DOWNWARD TREND ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER IN THE LOWER
20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE INCREASED WINDS...TEMPS WILL
FEEL COLDER THAN THEY TRULY ARE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAINED ANCHORED
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE LOCATION
AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WELL JUST YET. THE ECMWF HAS IT
TWIRLING AROUND OFF THE NORTHEAST TIP OF MAINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT BEFORE IT ADVERTISES A PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND AN ADDITIONAL PIECE ATTEMPTING TO
GENERATE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WOULD AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS BEGINS RETROGRADING THE SYSTEM EARLIER AND KICKS IT OUT JUST
AS RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH SIMILAR DETAILS AS THE ECMWF...IF IT
WERE FASTER AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY...HELD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PACKAGE FOR
NOW.
DO EXPECT HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH OVER NIGHT LOWS DOWN TO THE
MID TO LOW 20S...AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN-OVC DECK ABOUT 030 AGL MAY VARY TO SCT THRU 21Z. WINDS LIGHT
WITH ERRATIC DIRECTIONS...BUT SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS.
TIMING A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH ONSET OF IFR CIGS...AND MAY BE A BIT
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
14/16Z 27005KT
14/17Z 23005KT
14/18Z 20004KT
14/19Z 20004KT
14/20Z 20004KT
14/21Z 20004KT
14/22Z 20004KT
14/23Z 20005KT
15/00Z 20005KT
15/01Z 20005KT
15/02Z 21005KT
15/03Z 21005KT
KJFK...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
KLGA...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
KTEB...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
KHPN...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
KSWF...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
KISP...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
KBDR...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
KGON...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIG THIS AFTN/EVE.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
TUE EVE...VFR WITH NW WINDS INCREASING.
WED-FRI...PREVAILING VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT RESIDUAL SEAS PROMPT KEEPING THE SCA
UP UNTIL THIS EVENING.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ITS WAKE WITH STRONG CAA AND INCREASING NW WINDS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AND COULD
LINGER INTO WED NIGHT/THU ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
SINCE IT ISN'T EXPECTED TO START UNTIL LATE IN THE 4TH
PERIOD...HAVEN'T PUT WATCH UP...BUT WOULD EXPECT DAY SHIFT TO PUT
IT UP THIS AFTN.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BS/JM
MARINE...AL
HYDROLOGY...
