FXUS61 KBOX 072054
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SEAWARD
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES FOLLOWING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE. THEN A LARGE
STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND WIND. COLDER THAN NORMAL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES
SPREADS INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THE PATH
OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINDEX .01 TO .15 SHOWERY EVENT PROBABLE FOR COASTAL SE NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES NEAR CAPE COD...THEN MOVES OUT TO
SEA WITH CLEARING.
SEPARATELY...FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS
NRN MASS AND S NH THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
SO FOR NOW...SNOW GRIDS ESSENTIALLY ZERO.
12Z GFS MAV MOS BLENDED WITH MET NAM AND 2M TEMPS OF THE NAM.
GUSTY WNW WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT CC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***NASTY WINTRY WX COMMUTE FORESEEN WED MORNING INTERIOR SNE***
TUE...AN UNEVENTFUL DAY IS IN STORE WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FAIR WX SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WERE CUT FROM THE 12Z NCEP
MOS. BLENDED MOS WITH THE RGEM 2M TT.
TUE NIGHT...CONSIDERED WSA FOR CT RVR VALLEY AND ORH HILLS NWWD BUT
ITS A BIT EARLY AND WE SEE NO ONE ELEMENT REACHING CRITERIA BEFORE
THE END OF THIS EVENT LATE WED.
WE SAW THE SLOWER 18Z NAM. WE OPTED FOR THE 12Z UK/EC/GFS BLEND.
TSEC COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE START BUT THE INCREASING ELY WIND ON
THE COAST QUICKLY WARMS THE BL AND MELTS ANY BRIEF T TO .2 ACCUMS
NEAREST 3 MI OF THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...TITRATING AMOUNTS UPWARD
INLAND.
IN A NUTSHELL... BY DAYBREAK WED...EXPECTING 0.5 TO 2 INCH AMTS
WIDESPREAD JUST W OF I95.
DID NOT YET PUT IN S+ IN THE GRIDS IN STRONG FGEN IDEAL SNOWGROWTH...
LEAVING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO MORE CONFIDENTLY EXPRESS THE EXPECTED.
WE FORESEE WIDESPREAD WXA IN THE FUTURE FCSTS BUT JUST A BIT EARLY TO
ISSUE SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE OF ENOUGH SNOW ICE IN NW MA AND OR S NH
TO EVENTUALLY WARRANT A WARNING THO THAT HIGHER THRESHOLD WARNING IS
A LOW PROB ATTM.
MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z MAVMOS WITH 12Z NAM 2 AND 09Z
SREF.
QPF IS 18Z HPC.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED...SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT SNE WITH HEAVY PRECIP AND STRONG
WIND ALONG THE COAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INTENSE PRIMARY
LOW MOVING NE INTO THE GT LAKES WED WITH SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE WARM FRONT AND LIFTING NWD INTO SNE. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE REGION AND QPF 1-2" POSSIBLE. COLD AIR
INITIALLY IN PLACE IN THE INTERIOR AS STRONG OMEGA MOVES IN SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY INTERIOR BEFORE LOW LEVEL WARMING
CHANGES THE PRECIP TO RAIN WITH S NH LAST TO SEE CHANGEOVER EARLY WED
AFTERNOON.
THERMAL PROFILE AND BEST SNOW GROWTH TARGETS AREA FROM ORH NORTHWARD
THROUGH S NH FOR HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS REGION
COULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL BUT HIGH PROB OF AT
LEAST ADVSY SNOWFALL. LIGHTER SNOW ACCUM WITH LOW PROB OF ADVSY
SNOWFALL EXPECTED REST OF INTERIOR FROM BOS SUBURBS THROUGH NW RI
AND N CT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED ALONG AND SE OF BOS-PVD.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ICE IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE TRANSITION
FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING.
WIND IS THE OTHER CONCERN FOR WED AS STRONG EASTERLY LLJ LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE FROM CAPE COD NORTHWARD ALONG E COASTAL MA AND WIND ADVSY
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. LOW PROB OF HWW OUTER CAPE.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE WED AND ESPECIALLY WED EVENING AS OCCLUSION
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND DRY SLOT MOVES IN ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE
SW.
THU...GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
LOWERED MEX GUIDANCE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BASED ON 2M TEMPS. A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.
COLD AND BLUSTERY FRI AND SAT WITH GUSTY W WINDS CONTINUING. 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -16C SO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WIND
CHILLS WILL BECOME A FACTOR. A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FROM TIME TO TIME BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.
SUN...EC HAS CLOSE CALL WITH OCEAN STORM TO THE SOUTH AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION. GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...VFR. EXCEPT MVFR CIGS C AND ISLANDS WITH A PRD OF
R SHOWERS AFTER 23Z POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS VCNTY FMH AND
HYA.
OVERNIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TUE NIGHT...SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATE AFTER 06Z IN DEVELOPING SNOW
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO R OR SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITHIN 2 HRS
OF ONSET.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN COAST. STRONG E WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT STRONG WEST WINDS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
HEADLINES WILL POST AT 415 PM VIA MWW.
TONIGHT...MARGINAL SCA PTN OF THE SE WATERS AS SEAWARD DEPARTING LOW
PRES ATTEMPTS A FEW HRS OF CRITERIA WIND AND SEA CAA.
TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ON MOST MARINE ZONES.
TUE NIGHT...ELY GALE PROBABLY BEGINS IN THE RI WATERS NEAR DAWN WED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EAST WINDS INCREASING LATE TUE NIGHT AND STRONG GALES LIKELY DURING
WED...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS AS STRONG LLJ LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE WINDS WED AFTERNOON OVER
OUTER WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA. WINDS INITIALLY
BECOME SW WED EVENING BEHIND OCCLUSION BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT FINALLY HIT THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH 2009. THE LOW THIS SUNDAY MORNING
WAS 31 DEGREES AT 804 AM. IN 137 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING...THIS IS
THE LONGEST BOSTON HAS EVER WAITED TO GET DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK
DURING THE AUTUMN/WINTER. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS DECEMBER 2ND 1975.
THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO HAVING THE 6TH WARMEST NOVEMBER ON
RECORD...THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LUCK.
ON AVERAGE...THE FIRST FREEZE TYPICALLY OCCURS THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
GLOUCESTER NWR TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR. RTS UNKNOWN.
WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. JOHNSTON/PROVIDENCE NWR TRANSMITTER
IS BACK ON THE AIR BUT ON LOW POWER...SOME SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNABLE TO RECEIVE THE SIGNAL. MORE MAINTENANCE WILL BE DONE ON
MONDAY TO RETURN THIS STATION TO FULL POWER. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE
SEE OUR WEBSITE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/RLG 355
NEAR TERM...DRAG 355
SHORT TERM...DRAG 355
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG 355
MARINE...KJC/DRAG 355
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
