FXUS65 KTFX 250153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
653 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...
HAVE DONE AN EARLY UPDATE TO ZONE AND STATE FORECASTS. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN TFX ZONES ARE ALSO FALLING A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO HAVE LOWERED LOWS THERE 3 TO 7
DEGREES. WILL NOT UPDATE DISCUSSION IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE NOT
NECESSARY.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION... 
UPDATED 0004Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL 
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. FOG STILL LINGERING NEAR KHLN AND SHOULD IMPACT 
VIS AND CEILING TONIGHT. KBZN ALSO HAS A CHANCE OF FOG 
RETURNING...IN BOTH CASE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE AREA WILL 
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FEET WITH SNOW SHOWERS CREATING SOME 
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SUK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 504 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009/
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. OTHERWISE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
RESIDE IN THE HAVRE AREA INTO FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT NIGHT. BRUSDA

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED 
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA. A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
WILL CIRCULATE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THEN INTO THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY.  LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES 
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. 
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING 
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MLS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  11  24   8  24 /  10  10   0   0 
CTB   8  25  12  26 /  10   0   0   0 
HLN  -2  14  -3  13 /  10  10   0   0 
BZN  -1  16  -3  16 /  10  10   0   0 
WEY  -8  18  -8  20 /  10  10  10  10 
DLN   0  19  -2  19 /   0   0   0   0 
HVR -23   7 -10  11 /   0   0   0   0 
LWT  -7  19   3  25 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COULSTON/BRUSDA
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...SUK

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS