FXUS64 KMRX 051952
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID 
MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC 
COAST. RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT MOST OF THE EARLIER SNOW HAS 
EXITED THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT FLURRIES CONTINUING 
OVER NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. THUS...WILL PLAN TO CANCEL THE 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS SINCE THE THREAT OF 
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS HAS ENDED. WITH THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... 
EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF REFREEZING OF 
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER 
STATEMENT WHICH MENTIONS THE POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE TONIGHT. 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS 
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL 
TEMP PROFILE WILL FAVOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT MENTION 
ANY POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIP. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARDS 
THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE 
LINGERING SNOW COVER...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS 
GUIDANCE TEMPS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW 
RETURNING. 

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN 
FOR THE EXTENDED WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...AFFECTING 
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DEEP 
MOISTURE AND DECENT LIFT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA 
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POP WORDING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE 
POPS WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SOME LOCATIONS... 
MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY SEE A MIX OF PRECIP OR A CHANGE OVER 
TO LIGHT SNOW.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AT THE 
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   23  49  32  50  37 /   0   0   0  20  10 
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     22  46  31  48  36 /   0   0   0  20  10 
OAK RIDGE, TN             22  46  31  48  36 /   0   0   0  20  10 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    20  42  27  45  32 /  10   0   0  20  10 
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB