FXUS61 KGYX 011940
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS COAST
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MAINE AND
NEW HAMSPHIRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. STRATO CU AND ALTOCU WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THIS FEATURE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. USED THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH WERE
VERY CLOSE TO THE MAV. WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT FROM
GENERALLY A SW DIRECTION. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WILL START OUT THE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM
NORTHE TO SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFAC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO RACES NORTHEAST. USED A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
 
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN SPINE WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST A TRACK ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE LOW QUICKLY EXITING THROUGH
SOUTH/CENTRAL MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WINDS REACHING AROUND 50 KTS DOWN
TO 1 KFT ON THE FORECAST SOUNDS (WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE
AGRESSIVE MODEL). AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE
PROBLEMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WINDS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION AND FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. QUESTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS TO WHETHER WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREAT THIS AS A POSSIBLE SHORT PERIOD
ADVISORY SITUATION...WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER FOR THIS PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

NEXT ISSUE IS OFFSHORE LOW ON SATURDAY. ALL MODELS NOW IN
ALIGNMENT WITH KEEPING LOW WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MOTION IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO TRIGGER A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
MANY...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR.

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT TIMES AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
IT COULD ENHANCE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES. IN ANY CASE...SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE. WE DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CHANGES TO THE NUMERICAL MODELS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

QPF...APPEARS TO BE 1.O TO 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL NOT BE PROBLEMS DUE TO RUNOFF.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR AT CON AND LEB. VFR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...CEILINGS/VSBYS BECOME IFR OR LIFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS OCCUR. THERE WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH E OR SE WINDS BECOMING
SW.  IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT WITH DEVELOPING -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUITE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR GUSTY SE WINDS LATE
WED NIGHT...BECOMING SW THU. SEAS TO QUICKLY BUILD AS WELL.

&&

.SPLASH-OVER/POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE OF THE MONTH WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING (TIDE WILL REACH
11.1 FEET IN PORTLAND HARBOR AROUND 11 AM). THERE MAY BE SOME
PROBLEMS DUE TO SPLASH-OVER AND OR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
COAST. THE EXACT TRACT AND TIMING OF THE WIND FIELDS AND WIND
SHIFTS WILL BE CRITICAL TO THIS FORECAST. IF WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHEAST AND ARE ALLOWED TO BUILD WAVES WELL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THERE MAY BE MODERATE FLOODING. IF A WIND SHIFT OCCURS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THIS WOULD MINIMIZE PROBLEMS IN MOST
AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION PERHAPS THE MIDCOAST REGION. WILL
MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
CLOSELY ON WEDNEDAY. IN ANY CASE...WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH DUE
TO THE LOW PRESSURE CONTRIBUTION TO THE SIDE OF THE STORM SURGE
EQUATION. 

STORM SURGE MODEL GUIDANCE: NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE GFS STORM SURGE
PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM SURGE...WHICH IS
TYPICAL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING 
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...TFH
LONG TERM/SPLASH-OVER/COASTAL FLOODING...JC