FXUS63 KABR 271642 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1042 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY
FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO NOTEWORTHY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER RIDGE WITH PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DOMINATING
FEATURE TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALIGN WINDS TO
WESTERLY. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES ABOVE +10C AND DECENT
MIXING...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE THICKNESS OF THAT THIN CIRRUS
OVERCAST. A WEAK/DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE...WITH VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE OR LIFT TO PASS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY. VERY LITTLE
OMEGA IN SNOW GROWTH REGION EITHER AHEAD OR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS WE HAVE GOING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND SYSTEM...LOW CLOUDS IN ITS
WAKE MAY PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. 
FORTUNATELY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED...MAKING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE BAHA OF
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY EVENING. IT DROPS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUES EAST ON MONDAY WHILE
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS OFF AND REMAINS OVER MEXICO. THE FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...DROPPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS AS THE GFS KEEPS AN ELONGATED
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTHENS IT OVER THE MN/WI/IA REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
BEGIN TO SHOW UP ALREADY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM
NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS DROPS THE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON MONDAY...THEN TO NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF DROPS IT OVER SOUTHERN SASK
MONDAY...THEN TO MN/WI ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS BRINGS THE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WEST OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AT 850
MB...BUT ONLY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALL IN
ALL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM. WILL
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AOA 15K FEET STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. VSBYS WILL BE 
UNRESTRICTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN