FXUS63 KDDC 212125
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOR VARYING TYPES OF PRECIPITATION STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SNOW AMOUNTS INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL STORM IS STRETCHED OUT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WILL DIVE INTO ARIZONA BY MORNING THEN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, SO LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STORM ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LATER. THIS
COULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, FREEZING DRIZZLE, SLEET AND SNOW
FIRST IN THE FAR WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD DODGE
CITY BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE FAR EAST FA SHOULD SEE JUST
LIGHT RAIN. THEN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FOR THE SNOW LINE TO
ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST TO NEAR PRATT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
BY 6 PM WEDNESDAY GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM MEADE TO DODGE CITY
AND HAYS. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM VERY
UNCERTAIN WILL MAINTAIN THE BLIZZARD WATCH AS IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH IN OUR FA. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM DODGE CITY TO HAYS AND WEST
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
MEDICINE LODGE AREA. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT SNOW SPREADING WEST TO EAST EXCEPT NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 AT HAYS TO MID 40S AT MEDICINE LODGE.
DAYS 3-7...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG CLOSED
OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. ALL PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT IN THE TRACKING AND TIMING OF
THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUT GENERALLY HAVE THE CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD, BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FAR AS THE STORM IS CONCERNED, ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SYSTEM PAINTING WIDESPREAD QPF FIELDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH
TEXAS UP THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF KANSAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SIGNAL IMPRESSIVE QPF VALUES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MATURES WHILE SLAMMING INTO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NOSING IT'S WAY UP INTO THAT SAME GENERAL REGION.
HOWEVER, SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE STILL VERY MUCH
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WHAT IS CERTAIN ARE THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
VERY STRONG WINDS AT H85 EARLY THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 50KT AND
INCREASING TO 60 TO 70KT BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WIND SPEEDS AT
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO SURPASS 30KT WITH 40KT SUSTAINED WINDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EAST. EVEN WITH GENERALLY LOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS,
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD POSE A SERIOUS THREAT WITH NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS TO ANYONE CAUGHT OUTSIDE. THIS
ALONE WARRANTS RETAINING THE BLIZZARD WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO UPGRADE AT
THIS POINT. WILL INCREASE LIKELY CATEGORY POPS UP TO 80 POPS ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR
SNOW ACROSS THAT GENERAL AREA. WILL MAKE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
ELSEWHERE.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...NOT TO
MENTION LINGERING SNOWFALL HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. FOR
THURSDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SET UP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN KANSAS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85
DOWN TO AROUND 10C BELOW TO 12C BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 20S(F) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN
EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND ON
INTO OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP
ALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF KHYS TO KDDC AND EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL STRATUS
COULD SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS TUESDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING KGCK. AS A RESULT, IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
FOR CIGS...WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS FAR
WEST AS KHYS AND KDDC...MAINLY AFTER 10Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 40 27 32 / 0 10 60 70
GCK 26 40 26 31 / 0 10 70 70
EHA 28 46 27 31 / 0 10 60 60
LBL 25 45 27 32 / 0 10 60 60
HYS 25 35 25 30 / 0 10 80 80
P28 30 46 37 44 / 0 10 60 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
FN06/32
