FXUS63 KIND 041923
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
225 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009/ 

IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

SO FAR WE ARE ONLY 30 DEGREES AT IND. CONSIDERING THIS AND UPSTREAM 
TEMPERATURES...AGREE WITH NORTH WEBESTER COLD AIR IS REALLY 
ENTRENCHED OVER OUR AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS LIKE COLDER MET THROUGH 
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL NUDGE TOWARD MAV. MAV IS FINALLY COLDER THAN 
MET SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ALSO GO WITH THAT.

THE MODELS ALL AGREE ABOUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY THANKS TO 
RIDGE ALOFT. VARYING BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 
THEN ACCORDING TO HOW MUCH DAYTIME STRATOCUMULUS WE GET AND HOW MANY 
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSS AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BOTH MODELS BRING IN A CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT 
THIS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE TOO COLD 
FOR ANYTHING BUT SNOW...BUT MONDAY COULD SEE SNOW OR RAIN.

AFTER MONDAY THINGS GET MORE EXCITING...BUT THAT FAR OUT IT IS TOO 
EARLY TO BE DEFINITIVE. AS MENTIONED ON CHAT MODELS DUE SEEM TO 
CONCUR WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP US ABOVE FREEZING 
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ENORMOUS PRESSURE FALLS 
PROJECTED...WE MIGHT EVEN HAVE A LITTLE THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT. 
&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS IS ADVECTING INTO INDIANA. AT 
THE SAME TIME CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING REACHED ACROSS MOST 
OF THE AREA AND STRATOCUMULUS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN AND THIS AREA 
LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN FROM KHUF TO KIND. THE CEILINGS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS ARE RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT...SOME JUST 
BELOW AND SOME JUST ABOVE. THINK THAT WITH THE CURRENT HEATING IT IS 
MORE LIKELY THAT THEY WILL COME UP TO VFR THAN GO THE OTHER WAY BUT 
THIS MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF WHICH 
ARE FILLING IN FASTER. THEREFORE AM LIKELY TO GO WITH A PREVAILING 
VFR/TEMPO MVFR GROUP AT KLAF AND KHUF FOR THE FIRST 2 HOURS. 
EXPECTING KIND TO RISE BEFORE BECOMING BROKEN AND STILL UNCERTAIN 
JUST HOW FILLED IN THE CLOUD DECK WILL GET AT KBMG WITH IT/S 
PROXIMITY TO RIDGING AXIS FROM THE HIGH. AFTER THAT VFR EXPECTED 
WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT DRY DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KWIATKOWSKI
AVIATION...CP