FXUS61 KBGM 291750
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1250 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WITH RAIN WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AS OF 1050 AM...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD BAND ACROSS UPSTATE NY
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS OF LATE MORNING...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE EARLY AND MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST AROUND SUNSET.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WE COULD HAVE AN EARLY LOW TEMP
BEFORE THE LL FLOW INCREASES AND TEMPS RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN WRN NY AND MON MORN IN
THE SE. FAST MOVING BUT STRONG COLD FRONT. PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN
WITH THE FRONT AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
EVEN WITH STRONG CAA MON AFT LAKE EFFECT WONT GET GOING FULLY
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRONT AND NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT
GREAT. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE LATE MON NGT AND TUE MORNING AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH DUE TO THE GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY TO DROP AN INCH OR TWO IN CENTRAL NY. TIME
OF DAY IS GOOD ALSO. SYR HAS A CHC OF GETTING AROUND AN INCH
TUESDAY. WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS
DO NOT SET UP IN ANY ONE DIRECTION FOR THAT LONG. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD STAY BELOW THE 4 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WAA RETURNS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT
TO W THAN SW WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UL RIDGING MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS
GOING INTO DAY 5 THURSDAY...SO HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST OF 70/30 ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE BLEND BASED ON LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE.
AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILDER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING
SWLY FLOW...MOST MODELS CONCUR THAT THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO NEPA BY 12Z
THURS...BUT THE SPREAD IN TRACK OF SFC LOW AND DISTRIBUTION OF
COLDER AIR IS LARGE. GFS IS COLDEST WEDS NIGHT BUT EVEN THE EC/GGEM AND
GEFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE 850 MB FRZG LINE WILL BE BISECTING CNY.
PRECIP SHIELD WILL LIKELY SURGE NORTH WEDS NIGHT WITH BEST CHC SNOW
NORTH OF BGM...BUT OVERALL BLYR TEMPS MARGINAL SO THINKING WE WILL
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION TOO. LINGERING SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH MODERATE
NWLY FETCH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
CONSENSUS ON A DECENT POLAR OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR DURING THIS TIME
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN LAKE ONTARIO FOR BUSINESS AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND -10C. OUR FAVORED LAKE ZONES ALONG THE 280-300
VECTORS MAY SEE SUBSTANTIAL FIRST SNOWS OF THE SEASON.
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOK OK FOR WEDS...BUT 00Z
MEX GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO CLIMO AFTER THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
AND SHOULD BE UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES THURS-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1250 PM...LOW CLOUDS THAT IMPACTED THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED NORTH WITH VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH 0Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INTO
KELM/KITH/KSYR/KRME BETWEEN 05Z/06Z IN LIGHT RAIN. SOME IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AT THE TERMINALS MENTIONED ABOVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR IFR
CIGS WOULD BE AT KRME...THEN KSYR...THEN THE REST OF THE BUNCH.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST AT KAVP...THIS TERMINAL WAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE
MAIN GROUP BECAUSE MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY AS WINDS VEER INTO THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR. OCNL RAIN. CHC IFR ELEVATED TERMINALS.
MON NITE...IMPROVING TO VFR CIGS. CHC MVFR CIGS CONTINUE SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH -SHSN.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN SE LAKE ONTARIO.
WED...VFR.
THUR....MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED...SUNDAY MORNING
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW WAS BROKEN WITH THE CLIMATE REPORT ISSUED THIS
MORNING FOR THE 28TH. SEE THE RECORD REPORT ON THE INTERNET UNDER
LOCAL CLIMATE. HTTP:/WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BGM
THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY
CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED
FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT
JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 2009 277 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 28TH SO FAR
2) 1946 276 DAYS FEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
3) 1998 274 DAYS MAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
SYRACUSE MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF AN INCH IS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN
CLIMATE...
