FXUS63 KFGF 302118
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST 
SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH LOW 
PRESSURE TO THE E AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE W. WHEN 
COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT STILL 
HAVE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS. THUS...ENDED UP USING A 
MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST...LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS 
AND CANADIAN FOR POPS AND LEANED TOWARD THE ADJMAV FOR TEMPS. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY E THIS EVENING AS A 
CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO ND AROUND 
06Z. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO A DVL TO GFK TO BJI 
LINE...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND N OF 
THIS AREA. THE BEST 700MB LIFT AND 850MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARE 
RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST 
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION APPEARS AT THIS 
TIME. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK 
SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS. HOW STRONG 
THE WINDS WILL BE IS STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO THE TIMING 
DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...ANY AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW 
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON TUE AS WELL. 

CONSIDERING THAT THIS SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA PRIMARILY ON 
TUE...THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AREA REMAINS VALID. ONLY CHANGE 
WILL MAKE IS TO ADD BENSON...TOWNER AND RAMSEY COUNTIES SINCE WITH 
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THEY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW.

FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO LK SUPERIOR...WITH 
THE COLD NW FLOW KEEPING THE CHC FOR -SN AND FLURRIES IN THE AREA. 
ANOTHER 500MB TROF MOVES THROUGH FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...SO KEPT THE 
CHC FOR -SN OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. 

.LONG TERM [THU NIGHT - SUN]...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND 
AND DAILY TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES 
BETWEEN THE MODELS...MAINLY STEMMING FROM THE HANDLING OF TROUGH 
ALONG THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST THU AND FRI. THE GFS AND DGEX
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL DIG DEEPER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD INDICATE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF PCPN THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS
TROUGHING WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE AMERICAN NW COAST. LEANED TO
THE DRY ECMWF AND GEM. WHAT SEEMS TO BE MORE CERTAIN ARE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT AN INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR EARLY OR DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WORK WEEK...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 0 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR VSBYS AND CIGS TODAY. W TO NW WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A MIX OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND N MN TUE AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH E ND AND NW MN. CIGS WILL
LOWER AND EXPECT SOME -SN AT DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TOMORROW
MORNING...BEGINNING FROM W TO E. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH E ND DURING THE MORNING AND REACH THE LAKE AND WOODS
REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO BECOME QUITE
GUSTY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE
FROM THE W AND NW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NE ND AND N MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004>009-013.

&&

$$
NG/G2