FXUS63 KICT 031122
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
522 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
UPPER TROF ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS
PACKAGE...AS A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR SEEMS LIKELY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR KANSAS.
TDY-TONIGHT
COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH LESS WIND COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FRI-SAT
THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER KANSAS WITH SOME
MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE PERIOD BUT
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED: SUN-WED
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT COLDER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING INTO THE EQUATION AS WELL. GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH A UPPER WAVE RACING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND OPEN UP THE GATES FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE
SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. EXPECTED VERTICAL THERMAL/MOISTURE
PROFILES SUGGEST POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND
DRIZZLE FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS...HOWEVER SNOW COULD MATERIALIZE OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS MIGHT BECOME DEEPER. ONCE
THE COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
NORTH/SOUTH MOVEMENT IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THUS KEEPING COLD
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENTRENCHED FOR NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...A SECOND IMPULSE LOOKS TO AFFECT KANSAS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE PRONOUNCED DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE
BOOSTED SNOW CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BE
THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR THE REGION...STAY
TUNED STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
JAKUB
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WITH A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTENDS FROM MT INTO
WEST TX. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOWS UP ON THE 700MB ANALYSIS WHICH
IS GENERATING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SW KS INTO WEST TX. THIS
AREA OF MID CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
STRUGGLE. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AND LIKELY LONGER. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS THEY WERE ON WED.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 36 15 38 20 / 0 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 13 37 18 / 0 10 0 0
NEWTON 35 14 36 20 / 0 10 0 0
ELDORADO 35 15 36 20 / 0 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 38 15 38 20 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 32 10 38 17 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 33 11 38 17 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 35 15 38 18 / 0 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 34 14 37 18 / 0 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 38 18 37 21 / 0 0 10 10
CHANUTE 37 17 36 21 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 36 17 36 21 / 0 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 38 17 36 18 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
