FXUS64 KOUN 261124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.AVIATION...
WIDE OPEN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES TO OUR
EAST THIS EVENING... LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN...
AND WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPEED AFTER THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW
CLOUDS. AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON FRIDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE... AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ACCORDINGLY. LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER... INCREASING THE
RISK OF WILDFIRES. AT THIS TIME... WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW CRITERIA FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH... BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY IN CASE THE FORECAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A SNOW/RAIN MIX IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ARE
THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER A COUPLE OF COOL... QUIET DAYS... AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THEN... AS THAT WAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST... A LARGE CANADIAN
AIRMASS IS POISED TO DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE PLAINS... BRINGING WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY SKEWED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...
ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLIER
PERIODS ARE MOSTLY A MIXTURE OF GFS AND NAM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  37  70  44 /   0   0   0   0 
HOBART OK         62  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0 
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  38  72  46 /   0   0   0   0 
GAGE OK           65  28  70  34 /   0   0   0   0 
PONCA CITY OK     53  36  68  44 /   0   0   0   0 
DURANT OK         59  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ008-013-019-
     020-025-026-028>031-039-040-044-045.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

09/23/23