FXUS63 KMPX 261847 AAA
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1247 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.DISCUSSION...
N AREA OF LIFT AND VORT LOBE STILL AFFECTING WESTERN MN EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SATURATION ON THE 285 ISENTROPIC SURFACE.
WINDS KIND OF MARGINAL FOR BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE NATURE OF THE SNOW. THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR COUNTIES THE
MOST AFFECTED. COULD BE A AN INCH OR 2 OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...SO WILL
KEEP A AN ADVSY GOING. STILL SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT/TROWAL ACTION
POINTED OUT WEST TOO. OTHERWISE A COUPLE OF LOBES STILL ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LOW FOR CHANCE TYPE POPS IN THE EAST. ONE LAST PUSH OF
PV ROTATES AROUND FROM N IL THROUGH WI INDICATED ON NAM AND GFS THIS
EVENING. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE ION THE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY EASTERN AREAS. THE TEMPE FORECAST A LITTLE
TRICK THIS MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY/OCCLUSION WORKING TO THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND THEN RECOVER SOME IN TH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CLEARING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH MI TEMPS DROPPING BELOW GUID ACROSS THE FRESH SNOW. MAX
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO RECOVER IN A FEW AREAS WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
MET NUMBERS IN A FEW SPOTS.
FAIRLY QUIET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK..BUT THERE ARE HINTS
THAT AN ARCTIC INTRUSION MAY OCCUR TOWARD NEW YEARS. THE NAEFS IS
SUGGESTING HIGHER PROS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THE FIRST WEEK OF THE
NEW YEAR IN AND AREA FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN
THE NEWER SNOW COVER AND NOW EXTENDING FARTHER WEST...SEEMS TO
MAKE SENSE.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO WOBBLE AND FILL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAD LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY EASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS OVER WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MN. MARGINAL VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ONE THIRD OF MN.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER ALL THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPR/JM
