FXUS66 KEKA 112305
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
304 PM PST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A
WEAKENING FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONVECTION SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INTERIOR TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN BELOW
3500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE NIGHT AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES ACROSS NW CA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR 40N 130W WITH A CLOUD BAND CIRCULATING AROUND THE
CENTER AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CA.
PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY LATE SAT MORNING AS THE LOW NEARS THE
COAST. THE FRONT AS WELL AS A 120+ KT JET WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY...WILL STILL
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES WHERE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE SOUTH FORK AND KING MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. NORTHERN HUMBOLDT...TRINITY AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE LESS THAN 0.75 INCH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER MOVING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOWS A WEAK TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A 1+ INCH BAND OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ISSUES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF WEAK
RIDGING IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK. TH
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SCA ARE UP FOR ALL THE WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER OUR WATERS THE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH END SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON'T
THINK ANY WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED SINCE IT WILL BE SHORT IN TIME
DURATION. MIXED SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM
WILL THREATEN THE WATERS NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY BRINGING WORSE
CONDITIONS. STROZ
&&
.AVIATION...BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. STROZ
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
WATERS.
&&
$$
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