FXUS61 KOKX 301552
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST...AND PASS TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH REGARD TO MODEL HANDLING OF NEXT TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. DO EXPECT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN TO INCREASE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND H3 HPA JET STRENGTHENS...BUT DELAYED A LITTLE FOR
THE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
LOOKING FOR 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH QPF ON AVERAGE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. MOS BLEND FOLLOWED WHICH WAS LITTLE
CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS IN DATABASE ANYWAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. CLEARING OCCURS THIS EVENING AS THE SHOWERS DEPART THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S
INTERIOR.
UPPER LEVEL VORT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ON BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. COULD
SEE A SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POP UP TUESDAY. PROFILES
SHOW PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW...BUT WILL LET BOUNDARY LAYER
DICTATE PTYPE. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ANYWAY...PREDOMINATELY
INTERIOR. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND RIDGE BUILDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD OBSERVE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW STATES...WILL IMPACT THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
GETS CAUGHT UP IN FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
GGEM/SREF/NAM/GFS/GEFS AND EC ALL FAVOR INLAND TRACK TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. WILL DISCARD NAM SOLUTION AS
IT LAGS BEHIND ALL OTHER MODELS SOLUTIONS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. NAM SRN STREAM TROUGH AND SFC LOW FURTHER WEST AND SLOWER
THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. GFS COULD BE A TAD FAST WITH THE LOW
THAT MOVES OUT OF GULF AND TRAVERSES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. DO
EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS
CUTS OFF RAIN QUICKLY THURSDAY...BUT WILL SIDE WITH GEFS/SREF AND
SLOW THIS DOWN A TAD.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING ON THURSDAY (FULL
MOON)...BUT MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SE SWELL IMPACT THESE SOUTH FACING LOCALES.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY...COLDER
SATURDAY...THEN TEMPS MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT...AND A FEW HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN BEHIND
IT. OTHER THAN POSSIBILITY OF MVFR IN ANY MODERATE POST-FRONTAL
RAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DO
EXPECT LOW END VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS TO GET STARTED...BECOMING WNW AROUND MIDDAY...THEN NW BY
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTINESS TO 15-20KT BEHIND THE
FRONT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL. NOW APPEARS
WILL TRANSIT THROUGH 310...MAYBE FOR AN HOUR OR SO AROUND 21Z ON THE
WAY FROM WNW TO NW FLOW
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
30/14Z 23009KT
30/15Z 23009KT
30/16Z 23009KT
30/17Z 29010KT
30/18Z 30010KT
30/19Z 30010KT
30/20Z 30011KT
30/21Z 31011KT
30/22Z 32010G15KT
30/23Z 32011G16KT
01/00Z 32011G16KT
01/01Z 33011G16KT
KJFK...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.
KLGA...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.
KTEB...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.
KHPN...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.
KSWF...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.
KISP...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL.
KBDR...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL
KGON...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CIG HGT PSBL
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MON NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
TUE...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
TUE NIGHT...VFR.
WED-THU...IFR POSSIBLE.
THU NIGHT-FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE ALREADY REACHED SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. PRETTY STRONG CAA JUST BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTN...SO
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE OCEAN AND
EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS. REMAINING WATERS SHOULD FALL SHORT.
HAVE KEPT HEADLINES AS IS.
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT TONIGHT AND THERE COULD BE GUSTS REACHING 25
KT AT TIMES. WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE RIGHT AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL SO SCA WILL BE EXTENDED HERE.
CONDS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT AS STRONG
LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. GALES ARE A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY INTO THU...BUT STILL TO EARLY FOR A GALE WATCH.
WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE IN HWO.
ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
THU...BUT WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON WILL KEEP ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HIGH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE WEST COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THU
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...BUT DUE TO THE FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE
STORM...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND DECREASE BY THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS IN THE MORNING...2 TO 2 1/2 IN THE EVENING.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM...HENCE STRONGER WINDS AND
LARGER DEPARTURES IN THE STORM SURGE GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE MORE OF AN
EC/SREF ROUTE FOR NOW SO NOT TAKING THE GUIDANCE VERBATIM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC/PW
AVIATION...PFM
MARINE...AL
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AL
