FXUS64 KMEG 302046
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AT MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE HEADING EAST...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 50 WITH SOME 40S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA.
BELLES
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHATEVER
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. SOIL
MOISTURE IS A BIT UP DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
FOG OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT SINCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SOME
RETURN FLOW LATER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM OCCURRING.
LITTLE TO MENTION FOR TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THOUGH MONDAY)...
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF.
HAVE USED BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES....WITH THE NAM WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW. USING THE GFS/ECWMF AS GUIDE...BELIEVE SURFACE LOW
STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION TAKING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
OUR EAST. FOCUS DOES SHIFT TO POLAR JET WHICH DIPS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY. QUESTION IS DOES ENOUGH
COLD AIR WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SNOW OR MIX FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS? GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION STAYS
RAIN...POSSIBLE SOME MIX AT THE END. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WITH MIX ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SUGGESTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION (SNOW/RAIN) OVER MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DRY SINCE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN GFS
MOISTURE FIELDS. FOR THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS POLAR
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE US. RETURN
FLOW ON MONDAY COULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...THEREFORE HAVE KEEP FORECAST DRY.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP WILL LIFT AND CLEAR BTWN 18-22Z.
THE REST OF FCST PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH NORTH WINDS BECMG LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFT 03Z.
OKULSKI
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 35 57 42 50 / 0 0 50 80
MKL 30 56 38 48 / 0 0 30 80
JBR 30 56 37 45 / 0 0 30 80
TUP 33 57 42 52 / 0 0 60 80
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
