FXUS64 KTSA 152328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
DRY...COLD AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 
HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR 
THE AREA. FIRST PERIOD MAV NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM GIVEN THE LOW 
DEWPOINT AIR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER NIGHT...SO WILL UNDERCUT 
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST LARGELY 
QUIET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES 
EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH 
DECENT WARMING TO OCCUR BY THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WENT 
AHEAD WITH LOWER POPS THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MAV GUIDANCE AS 12Z 
ECMWF AND GEM/CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP WELL 
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A MENTION RAIN AND/ 
OR SNOW IN THE PERIODS THAT WILL BE CLOSE OR BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY 
MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.  TEMPERATURES 
PER THE ECMWF ALSO NOT AS COLD...SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A BLEND 
OF(SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS)THE ECMWF AND MAV NUMBERS FOR THE LATTER 
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP IT DRY AS WELL WITH THE ECMWF 
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.       

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   19  50  32  53 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   25  50  28  51 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   21  52  31  55 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   14  49  26  51 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   18  47  27  50 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   17  46  27  49 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   20  51  29  51 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   17  47  29  50 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   19  52  31  54 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   25  52  32  51 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07