FXUS61 KILN 270604
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
104 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST...UPDATED FORECAST
TO DECREASE POPS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES
DECREASE...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION DUE TO
ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
OVER 20 KNOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE BIT
OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
TIGHT SW TO NE 925-850 MB MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SOME SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL TREND TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT WARM UP
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND DEVELOPING FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SPREAD INTO REGION. MODELS BRINGING BEST RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF SOLUTION. SMALL CHC FOR SUN AFTN. LEFT SMALL CHC FOR
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW SHOULD MODELS SLOW A BIT. SHOULD BE RAIN
THROUGH PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE CHANGED ON SYSTEM EVOLVING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURS.
TAKING MORE EASTERN TRACK OF LOW WHICH LEAVES AREA DRY WITH COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON COMING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE ISSUANCE OF FCST IF ANY
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING WITH THE MID/UPR LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS BEGINNING TO PULL EAST OF THE REGION. MVFR CLOUDS NEAR
THE BACK EDGE OF THE H9 TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. AREAS OF -SHRA...WITH SOME -RASN
TO MIX IN THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
FROM ABOUT 13Z IN THE WEST TO NEAR 18-20Z IN THE EAST. WESTERN TAF
LOCATIONS CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FEW/SCT250 AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JDR
