FXUS66 KHNX 101200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
400 AM PST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT WARMING TODAY WITH THE 
APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING
AS DEW POINTS ARE UP 4 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS THE VALLEY AND
TEMPERATURES ARE UP 2 TO 5 DEGREES. 88D INDICATES NUMEROUS ECHOES
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER NO GROUND REPORTS OF ANY PRECIP...SO
WIDESPREAD VIRGA...EVENTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH A BREAK FRIDAY EVENING. A SECOND
AND MORE POWERFUL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH AN EVEN STRONGER THIRD
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ISSUED A WATCH TO COVER ALL THE
SYSTEMS...INSTEAD OF TRYING TO BREAK THEM UP INTO SEPARATE STORMS.
IT SEEMED MORE SIMPLISTIC FOR OUR USERS. IT IS WORDED THAT THERE
WILL BE BREAKS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS IN THE WATCH STATEMENT.

THE NAM IS GIVING SOME INCREDIBLE AMOUNTS OF LIQUID QPF FOR THE
EVENT...NEARLY 6 PLUS INCHES AT YOSEMITE...AND 7 INCHES AT
HUNTINGTON LAKE AND GIANT FOREST. SOME LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR TEHACHAPI
AND FRAZIER PARK. IT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WINTER STORM CRITERIA IN
THE SOUTH. SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE VALLEY AS WELL ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH 2.44 INCHES AT FAT AND .55 INCHES AT
BFL. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH FAT AT 1.40
INCHES. YOSEMITE AT 4.3 INCHES LIQUID AND HUNTINGTON LAKE AT AROUND
2.65 INCHES. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE RFC GOES WITH AND TAKE A BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE.

AT THIS POINT...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET AND
LOWER LATE ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 4500 FEET BEFORE ENDING. IT WILL
NOT STAY COLD LIKE THE LAST STORM AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 21Z 
TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE COAST BRINGING 
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN RAIN/SNOW OR CLOUDS 
AFTER 18Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS 
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN 
VALLEY AFTER 21Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY DECEMBER 10 2009... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR 
CAZ095>097.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD