FXUS64 KAMA 051733 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.AVIATION...
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SHOULD CREATE A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS AT THE
TAF SITES. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON AT KAMA WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE...WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS AT KDHT AND KGUY. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES
EXPECTED TO BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO KGUY BY 03Z...KDHT BY 05Z AND
FINALLY KAMA AROUND 10Z. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALSO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE STARTING AROUND 12
AND BRING IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO THE TAF LOCATIONS. NOT COMPLETELY
CONFIDENT THE CIGS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THOUGHT THE CHANCES WERE GOOD
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CIGS INTO THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE THE CIGS
DISSIPATING BY 17 OR 18Z TOMORROW.

JJB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/ 

AVIATION...
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL THIS MORNING...AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND BY 12Z SUNDAY. INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL...AND SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN MID LEVELCLOUDS...CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES AROUND 06Z TO 09Z SUNDAY...AND THEN
THROUGH THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AROUND 10Z SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER VERY COLD MORNING UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS UNDER MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE 
SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH PRECIP 
CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A BRIEF WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS SURFACE LEE TROUGH BECOMES 
ESTABLISHED. WITH THE AID OF INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 
TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S 
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. OPTED TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE WARMER 
MAV NUMBERS FOR TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE VERY DRY AIR 
IN PLACE. 

COLD AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA THE LAST FEW 
DAYS WONT TRAVEL TOO FAR NORTH AND LOOKS TO RELOAD AND MAKE ANOTHER 
RUN BACK INTO THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM 
ORGANIZES OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 
TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY WITH 30S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE 
REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A 40 DEGREE 
READING OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. FIRST WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO 
PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO 
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING 
ATTM. 

BY MONDAY...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH 
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. LEFT THE SMALL POPS FOR 
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. 
ANOTHER CLOUDY AND COLD DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE IN THE 30S. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEGIN TO CREEP 
UP BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. GFS MAINTAINS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHERLY 
TRACK WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...WHILE THE 
EUROPEAN KEEPS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE 
CRUCIAL TO TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND 
WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING. FOR NOW...PRECIP CHANCES WERE LEFT LARGELY 
IN TACT WITH LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES (20S) AND HIGHEST 
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES (40S). KEPT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW FOR 
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLUMN SHOULD COOL SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
ALL SNOW...THEN INCLUDED A MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY 
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE. FOR TEMPS TUESDAY... CURRENTLY 
HAVE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 
40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LEFT SOME SLIGHT END POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
AND EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM 
WITH MORE 30S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT 
THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING 
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO.      

TAB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 

TAB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/02