FXUS61 KRLX 080530
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT PASSING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL QUIET EVENING IN PROGRESS. COULD YET SEE SOME VERY WEAK
UPSLOPE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS BECOMING SHALLOW. THIS ALSO COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS DUE TO WARM CLOUD
TOPS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGETOPS. STILL THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE APPROPRIATE HERE...WITH ANY CHANCES PETERING OUT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN BUT CEILINGS SHOULD RISE WITH TIME.
NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS IN RESPONSE
TO LAV NUMBERS AND CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
EASTERN CANADA. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO REGION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...SO HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
DURING THE NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SLICKS SPOTS ACROSS THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES...ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE BASED ON
COUNTY-BASED ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING AT THIS
TIME. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
BASED ON MODEL INSTABILITY FORECASTS AND SPC THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOKS...HAVE TRIMMED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND COLD FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND
HAVE BUMPED WIND SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS UPWARD. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO/HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND
WATCHES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FEEL WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WINDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE SIMILAR TO LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...AND WILL GENERALLY BE FOLLOWED WITH SOME TWEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING
THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRINGING A VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS UNDER H8 WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS
THU NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES SPREADING FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...DECREASING
BY FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EAST AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...TO BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. PCPN EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW FRI
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN AND MIX SAT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW SAT NIGHT
AREA WIDE. GOING A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION...MORE LIKE THE ECMWF OLDER SOLUTION. STICK CLOSER TO HPC
TEMPERATURES TWEAKING DOWN FEW DEGREES LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 09Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 09Z AS
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...PATCHY
MVFR FOG WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...HEAVY AT
TIMES...AFTER 18Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY
21Z...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40
KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE TO
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR IN MOSTLY RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL
