FXUS64 KHUN 011710 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1109 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&

.AVIATION...
CS IS OVERSPREADING NRN AL RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU 
THIS EVENING.  VFR CONDS SHOULD LAST THRU 06-09Z TIME FRAME BEFORE 
MVFR CONDS DVLP IN SHRA ACTIVITY AND CIGS AOB 030 AGL.  GRADIENT 
WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFT 08-09Z WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT 
PSBL AT KHSV AND ~30KT AT KMSL.  WILL LEAVE LLWS OUT ATTM...BUT THIS 
WILL NEED FURTHER EVALUATION ON LTR UPDATES.
&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/...
HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FROST AS TEMPERATURES 
CLIMB STEADILY INTO THE U30S/L40S.  REMAINING FG IN THE PAINT 
ROCK/TN VALLEYS OF NERN AL SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY.  NO OTHER CHGS 
REQUIRED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 
AFTER EXAMINING THE FORECAST FOR WIND GUSTS STARTING LATE TONIGHT 
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED...WILL NEED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND 
ADVISORY FOR THE CWA. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF 
I-65 AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NW GULF 
AND TOWARD THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WED.

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE TN VALLEY THIS EARLY MORNING WITH 
TEMPS HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING 
FOG ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED AREAS. 
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AND/OR A DENSE 
FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG AND THE 
CURRENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD. IF WX/FOG CONDITIONS THOUGH START TO 
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...WILL UPDATE THE 
FORECAST AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY NICE AND MILD DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE 
TN VALLEY AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EWD AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN 
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. WX CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE 
RAPIDLY CHANGING STARTING TONIGHT AS THE ADVERTISED AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE OUT OF THE WRN GULF BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARD THE NE. QUITE A 
BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS EXISTS THIS EARLY 
MORNING REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE TONIGHT AND WED.
THE GFS LOOKS TO TAKE A MORE ERN TRACK WITH THE LOW WHILE THE NAM
MOVES THE LOW CLOSER TO THE MS/AL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF ALMOST
TRIES TO SPLIT THE TRACK BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM. A MORE WWD TRACK
WOULD PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...ALONG WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST IN TACT TRANSLATING INTO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME NE AL
WED. BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SOME FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SE 
REGION WED NT/EARLY THU AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE 
TN VALLEY. A STRONG/EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH POLAR AIR 
IN TOW...THEN LOOKS TO BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO 
THE ERN CONUS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS RETURNING THU NT. OVERALL 
TEMPS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE 
SFC HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES EWD.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...
     JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...
     MARSHALL...MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KULA
UPDATE...KULA
PREV DISCUSSION...DG