FXUS63 KOAX 020903
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING LARGE BROAD UPPER TROF EXTENDING FM
ONTARIO SWWD INTO WY WHILE A LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINS OVER CNTRL TX.
SOUTHERN LOW WL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON THE AREA BESIDES A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO FAR SERN
NEB. ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST. SFC CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE
ENTIRE CWA AND IS WELL INTO SERN KS/CNTRL MO THIS MORNING. 850MB
CAA CONTINUES AS NORTHERN TROF DUMPS ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH SOME SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
FAIRLY GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL. UPSTREAM SFC TEMPS YESTERDAY BEHIND
THE CDFNT LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR NRN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE VERY LOW DENDRITIC
LAYER COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES. VERY WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO
LEAD US TO BELIEVE THAT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY SO WL
CONTINUE WITH A FLURRIES MENTION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS
QUITE BLUSTERY WITH UPPER TROF MOVING A STRONGER PUSH OF CAA INTO
THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF AXIS WL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS LAGGING BEHIND. WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE COLD AIR. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. INVERTED SFC TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BISECT
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 

06Z TAFS

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE TAF 
PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND 
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...CHANCE 
SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THAT OUT AND WILL HAVE TO AMEND IF 
NEEDED. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD... 
WHICH MAY BE GUSTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

KERN/MILLER