FXUS65 KLKN 251011
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 AM PST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BEGINNING SUNDAY USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS OVER
WASHINGTON STATE CRESTING THE CURRENT RIDGE D0MINATING THE WEST
ATTM. A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON IR BRUSHING EXTREME NORTHEAST
ELKO COUNTY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.

FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS. AGREEMENT HOLDS FOR
RIDGE LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH
THE ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE SHOWING A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THESE TWO DEEPER SOLUTIONS WOULD
INDICATE A LATER START TO SNOWFALL...AFTERNOON. GFS SUPPLIES SOME
FAINT QPF BEFORE MIDDAY FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THE CURRENT
FORECAST DEPICTS THIS HOWEVER WILL OPT TO SPLIT THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIODS TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING FRIDAY...A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL
BE A WARM SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY SPIKE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL
LEND ITSELF TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE THE COOLER AIR
DESCENDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE
30S. WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY COULD EXCEED
40 MPH IN CENTRAL NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
BEGINS WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS 
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE STILL 
TO BE DETERMINED. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW 
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF 
AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. AFTER THAT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING 
DRY/QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF 
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK AND A 
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD.
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. VFR 
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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