FXUS64 KTSA 102342
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR...NEARLY CLOUDLESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MIGRATES EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START (NUMEROUS LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS)...TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED BACK ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE E TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
INTERESTING LIGHT QPF EVENT MAY POTENTIALLY SETUP FOR LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SIMILAR IN DRIFTING A WRN
GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW NWD TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS DECK
SPREADING NWD THROUGH TX AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE THAT LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS 30-35KT SSWLY H85 JET
OVERRIDES THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. BEST CHANCES OF ANY LIGHT
ICING WOULD BE ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
ICING EVENT AT THIS TIME...RESIDENTS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.
AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO
PUSH ACROSS AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF (WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT INTO ERN OK 12Z MONDAY) GIVEN THE SNOWPACK FROM WRN/CNTRL
CANADA SWD INTO KS. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY...AND MAY VERY WELL HAVE FALLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IF THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION IS REALIZED.
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY
SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO WARM
THROUGH THE 30S. ONLY A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED BEYOND
MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 19 44 30 44 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 18 44 29 45 / 0 0 10 20
MLC 22 47 32 47 / 0 0 10 20
BVO 15 44 24 44 / 0 0 10 20
FYV 15 40 26 43 / 0 0 10 20
BYV 16 40 24 43 / 0 0 10 20
MKO 18 45 29 45 / 0 0 10 20
MIO 15 43 25 43 / 0 0 10 20
F10 19 45 31 47 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 24 47 34 48 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21
