FXUS61 KGYX 150757
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING US SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT...SETTING UP A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES IN THE MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES OVER LK ONTARIO IS PRODUCING SOME WAA ATTM...WHICH
IS COINCIDING WITH A WEAK 500MB WAVE AND PRODUCING AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIP...CURRENT RA/SN LINE SEEMS TO RUN JUST S OF A LINE
FROM K1P1-KIZG-KAUG...AND THIS WILL LKLY HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS AT LEAST. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ME
ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
VERY WIDELY SCT SHOWERS NOTED TO THE WEST ACROSS NY/VT...AS
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WEEK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER INTO THE AFTER...BEFORE IT SHIFTS SE LATE TODAY...ENDING
UP NEAR EASTPORT BY 00Z...WHERE IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...LOOKS LIKE SCT SHRA ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN...WHICH WILL BE VERY LIMITED SW OF KPWM...AND SHSN IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS /ALTHOUGH EVEN THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE SOME
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AS MAXES CLIMB TO NEAR 40 THERE. GENERALLY
CLOUDY AS STRATUS HAS PRETTY MUCH INUNDATED THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WE START TO SEE THINGS SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW OVER DOWNEAST ME...BEGINS TO INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. THIS PROCESS LOOKS TO
HAPPEN FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
PRECIP IN THE CWA...HOWEVER BUILDING NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SPEED THE
CLEARING IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS..BUT COULD CREATE A SURGE OF
UPSLOP SHSN IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...AS MID-LVL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE INTENSIFYING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST.
UNCERTAINLY HERE LIES IN HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE MAKES IT OUT OF
THAT SYSTEM...A ND THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SN THE MTNS
ACTUALLY SEE. ONCE THE NW FLOW SETTLES IN COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM IN RAPIDLY. ALTHOUGH NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPSLOPE OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING WILL PROVIDE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH IT WILL BE SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH A STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN/
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO 20 BELOW OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION
DROPS SOUTH AND WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS AS WELL AS CONTINUE THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GRADIENT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO INCREASE A BIT...THOUGH STILL
SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. A MID ATLANTIC STORM LATE
IN THE WEEKEND NOW APPEARS TO BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND EXPECTING IT TO LOWER TO BLO 2K FT FOR A PERIOD
BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MIDDAY....THEN GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREA OF PRECIP CURRENT OVER WESTERN ME...SHOULD CLEAR
KAUG BY 10Z...AND EXPECT TO SEE ONLY WIDELY SCT SHRASN THRU THE
REST OF THE DAY. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD VFR BY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. &&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL BE HOISTING GALES STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AS NW WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS
WED.
LONG TERM...
...GLW CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FREEZING SPRAY
THURSDAY...LOWERING TO SCA CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
LOWERING TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/
MARINE...CEMPA/
