FXUS64 KFWD 232334 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.AVIATION...
PROBLEMATIC TAF FORECAST FOR THE AREA AIRPORTS. COLD FRONT
STRETCHES ALONG A SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WICHITA FALLS TO MIDLAND
LINE. THE COLD FRONT HAS HAD A SLOW PUSH AS A SURFACE LOW REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE DFW METRO AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING. THINKING THE NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MAKE IT AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH A FEW HOURS LATER. THE FRONT WILL MAKE INTO
WACO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AND FEEL THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL JUST CARRY A CB
GROUP FOR DFW AND VCTS FOR WACO. RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT AS BEST LIFT ARRIVES TO THE REGION...BUT THINKING
THE WINDOW FOR THUNDER WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE VERY STRONG FROM THE WNW. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
OVER 40 KNOTS. THIS WNW COMPONENT WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE N-S
RUNWAYS AND HOLIDAY TRAVEL TOMORROW.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 IN A REGION OF ASCENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND INTO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE RAIN SWITCHING TO SNOW AROUND 9 AM. WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP LIQUID FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL
AND MAY INCLUDE SNOW IN THE METRO TAFS IN THE 9PM UPDATE.
85/NH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
LOTS GOING ON TODAY. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...INITIALLY EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTH
TEXAS AND TRANSITIONS NORTHEAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND THE SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND BACK INTO THE
INTERSTATE 35 AREA. AGAIN...HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A TORNADO.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST...REACHING SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
LATE MORNING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG...AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE SOME SNOW IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WE DO NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION.
AGAIN...SHOULD THE UPPER LOW TRACK END UP FARTHER SOUTH...THE
SNOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE ALONG WITH IT. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OUT INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
PER THE 12Z GFS...THIS SYSTEM HAS 500MB HEIGHTS...STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...MORE THAN 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE AVERAGES.
THESE STRONG SYSTEMS ARE RARE...AND THUS THE ESTIMATES OF A
COUPLE OF FEET OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE STRONG WINDS
IN TEXAS...AND THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED
BY UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
IN THE EXTENDED...NORTH TEXAS REMAINS COOL AND DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE LOW POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH DAY 7 UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE TIMING. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 41 44 25 43 28 / 90 50 5 5 5
WACO, TX 44 50 26 47 27 / 80 20 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 43 45 23 38 25 / 90 80 20 5 5
DENTON, TX 38 41 22 41 25 / 90 60 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 38 44 22 41 24 / 90 60 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 41 45 25 42 28 / 90 50 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 46 46 26 43 27 / 90 50 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 47 50 27 44 27 / 90 40 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 47 51 28 47 29 / 80 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
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