FXUS63 KJKL 101243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
743 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY SHOULD BE AT MOST A DUSTING
AND RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES. EXPECT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY ROAD
SURFACES CLEAR. OTHERWISE...SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH TIME AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN TRANSITS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
OTHER THAN SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING OUR WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY. AFTER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT
ONLY A BIT OF HIGH CI TO TRANSIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THEREFORE
EXPECT PREDOMINANT CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE COOLER
MET MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. ADD TO THE
MIXTURE VERY LOW DEW POINTS...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PREFERRED TO
UNDERCUT ALL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SO
WILL ADVERTISE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
OUR TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. FRIDAY MORNING WILL DEFINITELY BE OUR
COLDEST MORNING THUS FAR THIS SEASON.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND IN RETURN OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK OF SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME...BUT
APPEARS UNCHANGED FROM MORE RECENT RUNS. THAT BEING SAID STAYED CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS. HOWEVER...WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP PROFILES HAVE CONTINUED TO
WARM JUST A BIT MORE. AFTER CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF CLOUD
COVER...FELT IT PRUDENT TO DROP ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. 

OTHERWISE...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OUR AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
OTHER THAN TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POPS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT EXPECTED...AND PERIODIC
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PREFERRED
SMALLER DIURNAL CYCLE TO TEMPS. SO TIGHTENED UP THESE A BIT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

LOW CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM 
WILL AFFECT THE REGION INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. AT TAF ISSUANCE...
CEILINGS WERE BORDERLINE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL RISE MODESTLY DURING THE DAY AND
CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS...SO THAT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
20-25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL START
TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...HAL