FXUS64 KLCH 061750
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE EVE HOURS WITH CHCS FOR RAIN
TWRDS MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM
LCH TO BPT WHERE A COASTAL TROF IS DEVELOPING...THRU SUNSET. VFR
THRU AFTN HRS...MVFR EVE HOURS...IFR THRU OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW.
FRONTAL SYS DOWN INTO THE REGION TMRW AFTR SUNRISE AND IFR THRU
LATE MRNG HRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
..FALL WEATHER TODAY...COLD FRONT/RAIN FOR MONDAY...SPRING WEATHER
ON TUESDAY...COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY...
AND MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY...
DISCUSSION...
JUST A MESS FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE NW GULF REGION IN THE CROSS HAIRS. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVE THROUGH WILL WASHOUT WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF AND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HOUSTON BY THIS EVE AND THIS WILL RETURN THE
THREAT FOR RAIN YET AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND DOWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
MONDAY MORNING...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN
THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE BACKING UP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MORE
RAIN. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MORNING LOWS ON THURSDAY. SO IF YOU DON'T
LIKE THE WEATHER TODAY JUST WAIT UNTIL TMRW IF WILL BE DIFFERENT.
TODAY...PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLDY AND A BIT BREEZY...HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 60 INLAND.
K. KUYPER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BEING REPORTED AT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN TX. WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBPT AND KLCH BY MIDDAY. THE S TX
LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TAF SITES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
BKN-OVC CIRRUS DECK ACRS THE AREA..WITH LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN
DURING THE MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT KBPT AND KLCH. BY
THIS AFTN...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACRS SE TX...SPREADING EAST AND
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR KLCH AND
KBPT AFTER 00Z...WITH PROB30S FOR REMAINING SITES. IFR CIGS/VISBYS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWERS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE LANDWARD=GULFWARD OSCILLATION OF FRONTAL SURFACE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS MAKING FOR A COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO.
IN GENERAL THE LANDWARD MOVEMENT SUGGESTS IMPENDING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GULFWARD MOVEMENT SUGGESTS IMPENDING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH MORE VIGOROUS PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TODAY...A SLOW WARM-UP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED CONFINED BELOW THE FREEZING
LEVEL...WHILE INSTABILITY IS MEAGER MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE...MAINLY
SYNOPTIC LIFT ATTENDING THE PASSING PACIFIC SHORTWAVES ALOFT.
FOR TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BE ONGOING TRANSITIONING OVER TO PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY MONDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TEMPORARILY...BEFORE
RETURNING WITH A VENGEANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 57 66 58 73 57 / 60 50 70 70 30
KBPT 57 65 59 73 57 / 60 50 70 70 20
KAEX 49 62 53 69 56 / 50 50 70 70 30
KLFT 55 66 59 75 57 / 50 50 70 70 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
