FXUS64 KMEG 161027
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
427 AM CST WED DEC 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1038 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INFRARED SATELLITE TRENDS SINCE YESTERDAY
CONTINUE TO SHOW CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS MOVING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM PARIS TN TO JONESBORO AR. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CST
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF I-40 AND MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST PACKAGE. 

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE SHORT
TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVES FROM MEXICO EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
OVERALL COVERAGE AS 300 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY COMBINATION FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...REMOVED POPS COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY NIGHT AS 310K SURFACE INDICATES MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
RANGE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS. LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUN ALONG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOISTURE STARVED DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SNOW. AT THIS POINT ONLY EXPECTING FLURRIES
AT BEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  47  27  54  34 /   0   0   0  10 
MKL  45  24  52  29 /   0   0   0  10 
JBR  44  25  52  30 /   0   0   0  10 
TUP  48  28  54  32 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$