FXUS65 KPUB 261134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 AM MST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE AREA TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF 
THE UPR LOW THAT IS OVR IL THIS MORNING.  THE GRADIENT IS STILL 
FAIRLY STRONG OVR ERN CO WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS OVR 
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WL DECREASE A LITTLE 
THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE CONTINUED SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR 
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT SEEING ANY REPORTS OF PCPN...ALTHOUGH THERE 
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OUT THERE NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH.  MAY 
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVR THE CENTRAL MTS THRU THE DAY 
AND INTO THE NIGHT...SO WL KEEP SOME SCT POPS IN THIS AREA.  
OTHERWISE...WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE REST OF THE MTS...AND NE 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THRU THE DAY. TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE 
TODAY...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR.  WL GO WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE FLOW OVR THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE PCPN CHANCES 
END.  MID LEVEL MSTR OVR ERN AREAS MAY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY 
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
REGION TO END THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ON 
MONDAY. VERY SLIGHT WARMING BOTH DAYS...AND KEPT CONDITIONS DRY 
UNTIL MON EVENING WHEN ISOLATED PCPN GETS REINTRODUCED TO THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF THE CONTDVD.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN 
HANDLING THEN NEXT INCOMING FEATURE...WHICH IS A FAR-REACHING TROUGH 
THAT BY TUE SPANS FROM CANADA AND IDAHO DOWN THRU AZ AND INTO OLD 
MEXICO. THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CLOSED LOW STAYS SOUTH 
ACROSS AZ AND NM...PUSHING MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO 
SW COLORADO BY TUE MORNING. NAM DOES NOT AGREE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF 
SOLUTION...AND KEEPS THE LOW SOUTH BUT CONDITIONS DRY. PCPN THAT 
INITIALLY BEGINS ALONG THE CONTDVD SPREADS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA TUE 
AFTN...AND CONTINUES THRU WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SWINGS EAST 
ACROSS THE STATE. FOR NOW...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY 
COLD...AND WHILE THE FOCUS AREA FOR POTENTIAL SNOW WILL BE ACROSS 
THE MTS...THE PLAINS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PUSHING 40F.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST...COLDER NW 
FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS COLORADO FOR THU AND FRI. AN UPPER LOW 
DROPPING DOWN TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON THU...COUPLED WITH SFC HI 
PRES MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...WILL GIVE THE REGION ANOTHER BLAST OF 
COLD AIR AND MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY DROP 10F OR MORE BY FRI. WITH 
THE CURRENT EXPECTED NW FLOW...THE CENT MTS WOULD BE THE FOCUS AREA 
FOR ANY PCPN. ONGOING POP GRIDS PAINT ISOLATED POPS ALL AREAS WHICH 
IS MOST LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT 
WILL LET THEM RIDE FORTHE TIME BEING. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE THREE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE SEEN OVR THE MTS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A FEW LOWER CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AROUND THE KALS AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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