FXUS64 KCRP 101018
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY
WHICH IS A BIT TRICKY. APPEARS WE MAY BE BETWEEN THE THICKEST JET
CIRRUS JUST TO THE NORTH (POSSIBLY OVER NRN COS) AND A DEVELOPING
SCU DECK THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS DEEP S TX ASSOC W/
RETURN OF H85 MOISTURE. S0...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE EARLY
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S AREA WIDE BEFORE SCU DECK
FROM THE SOUTH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE SHALLOW COOL
AIRMASS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECREASING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS (290-300K) WILL LEAD TO THICKENING/LOWERING
OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WITH INCREASING CHC PRECIP. EXPECT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION (ESP SRN AREAS) AFTER
MIDNIGHT W/ A LOW CHC OF LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL SEE INCREASING
DRIZZLE AND CHCS OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT+ JET MOVES OVER S CEN TX.
MODELS SHOW MODEST V-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOC W/ THIS FEATURE AND
A WEAK S/WV MVG ACROSS CEN TEXAS IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. AM
SHOWING WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AREAWIDE FOR FRI W/ 70 POPS ACROSS THE
ERN HALF TAPERING BACK TO 30-40 POPS TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FOR POTENTIAL OF MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL FORECAST HIGHS BELOW MOS
AND CLOSER TO RAW NAM12 FORECAST WHICH SHOWS MOSTLY UPR 40S ACROSS
THE REGION W/ SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY NEAR SCA LEVELS OFFSHORE AS A
COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION. EVEN IF
WINDS DROP TO CAUTION LEVELS...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 7
FEET AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE JUST WENT AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED AGAIN TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AS WELL ONCE THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
SOME. LOOKS LIKE THE BAYS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT MAY INCREASE BACK TO CAUTION LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...JET CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL SEE HIGH BASED SCU DECK SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERRUN THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SCU DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS INITIALLY...BUT AS THE COOL AIRMASS DECREASES IN
THICKNESS...CIGS WILL LOWER AND PATCHY/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS THIS OCCURS. WILL LIKELY SEE IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD FRI AS THIS PROCESS OF
A DECREASING COOL LAYER CONTINUES AND LIGHT PRECIP BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD, THE NEXT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP EVENT TO IMPACT SOUTH
TEXAS WILL QUICKLY BE WINDING DOWN. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A LOW LEVEL COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES, PRECIP
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING RIGHT OVER THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM RELATIVELY LOW
VALUES REACHED ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON REACHING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S THAT AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ROUGHLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE THAT
WILL BE REACHED MONDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 54 47 51 51 66 / 10 20 70 40 10
VICTORIA 51 42 48 45 63 / 0 10 70 40 20
LAREDO 54 45 50 49 68 / 10 20 40 20 10
ALICE 54 45 49 49 68 / 10 20 70 30 10
ROCKPORT 54 47 52 52 63 / 0 20 70 40 10
COTULLA 51 42 48 48 70 / 0 10 30 30 10
KINGSVILLE 56 46 50 50 68 / 10 30 70 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 54 48 54 54 65 / 10 30 70 40 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
MJG...SHORT TERM
JR/19...LONG TERM
