FXUS65 KBOU 271009
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
308 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS 
COLORADO TODAY.  VERY WARM MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE 
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY 
WARM TEMPERATURES.  WITH 700 MB READINGS RISING TO AROUND 7C...HIGHS 
IN THE LOWER 70S SEEM QUITE REASONABLE FOR THE DENVER AND BOULDER 
AREAS GIVEN THE FULL SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY.  
THE RECORD HIGH FOR DENVER TODAY IS 74...AND WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 
THAT WITH A BIT MORE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 
ONE MORE MILD NIGHT BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE 
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE MOVING OVER 
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO 
SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE STATE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM BOTH THE 
NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE HIGH COUNTRY TO START SEEING 
SOME SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN EXTRA ENERGY PUSH IN THE 
EVENING TO BRING THE CHANCE DOWN TO THE PLAINS. OROGRAPHICS IN THE 
MOUNTAINS ARE NOT GOING TO BE THAT GREAT WITH LIGHT FLOW...HOWEVER 
LIGHT TO MODERATE UPWARD QG MOTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE COLD 
FRONT SEEMS TO LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO BRING MORE OF A PROLONGED LIGHT 
SNOW EVENT. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN 
COLORADO...SO WILL LESSEN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY NORTH OF 
INTERSTATE 70 AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY SOUTH. OVERALL...ONLY EXPECT 2 
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. FOR THE PLAINS...CURRENT 
FORECAST LOOKED GOOD WITH FAVORING THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE 
AREA...WITH CONTINUED EMPHASIS ON A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT. MOST 
LIKELY WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE EVENT ON 
SUNDAY...WITH THOSE AMOUNTS BEING ON THE UPPER END AS OUR WARM 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS COULD KEEP IT FROM 
ACCUMULATING MUCH OVER THE WARM GROUND. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR 
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS TO KEEP MAIN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH OF 
INTERSTATE 70. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER 
ON THE PLAINS FROM THE WARMTH ON FRIDAY AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES LESS 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS....GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR 
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING IN TO COOL 
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 10 TO 15 DEGREES SUNDAY...BRINGING CHILLY MAX 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE PLAINS AND TEENS TO 20S OVER THE 
MOUNTAINS TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 

HAVE GENERALLY LEFT THE LATER PERIODS ALONE AS THE TIMING AND 
STRENGTH OF A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
THURSDAY. A GOOD BREAK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES 
TO POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE 50S...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW 
FALLS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE KEPT 
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL 
EXISTS PAST DAY 6. 

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ONLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH 
CLOUDS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET TONIGHT.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE 
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL...WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST 
TENDENCY AT KDEN FROM AROUND 20Z-00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

$$

BARJENBRUCH/KRIEDERMAN