FXUS64 KLZK 272045
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL CATEGORIES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST PARCEL TRAJECTORIES INDICATE SOME GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH 
RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO/SRN 
TX. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ENE TUE AND WED...BRINGING THE 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BACK TO AR MID WEEK. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO 
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL 
SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER AT THE START OF 
THE PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS 
THE SRN CONUS...AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH INITIALLY. DETAILS REGARDING 
MOISTURE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED SFC 
LOW OF THE GULF COAST IS DIFFERING. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC LOW 
FURTHER OFF THE COAST AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE 
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER. BEST QPF LOOKS TO REMAIN 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA AT THIS TIME...BUT VARIATIONS IN 
TRACK OF UPPER AND SFC LOW COULD ALTER BEST QPF. KEEP BEST POPS 
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE FOR NOW. 

TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE WARMEST TUE...THEN COOL ON TUE 
WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S DUE TO CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND WITH 
THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL 
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH 
FROM SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE EXITING SFC AND UPPER LOW.  
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  65  46  57 /   0   0  10  40 
CAMDEN AR         40  68  48  63 /   0   0  10  50 
HARRISON AR       40  67  46  54 /   0   0  10  50 
HOT SPRINGS AR    39  66  48  59 /   0   0  10  50 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  40  66  48  60 /   0   0  10  40 
MONTICELLO AR     41  67  47  63 /   0   0  10  40 
MOUNT IDA AR      39  66  49  58 /   0   0  10  50 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  39  67  45  55 /   0   0  10  50 
NEWPORT AR        40  65  46  57 /   0   0  10  40 
PINE BLUFF AR     41  67  47  62 /   0   0  10  40 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  66  47  57 /   0   0  10  50 
SEARCY AR         39  65  46  58 /   0   0  10  40 
STUTTGART AR      41  66  47  60 /   0   0  10  40 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...62