FXUS64 KTSA 301111
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM/WRF AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER/MORE CUT OFF WITH UPPER LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT
AREAS OF RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS
EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW
TO AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY/WARM GROUND
TEMPS AND THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY THAT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AGAIN STAYED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 57 34 56 34 / 0 0 10 60
FSM 56 33 56 39 / 0 0 10 50
MLC 56 33 56 38 / 0 0 10 80
BVO 56 28 58 30 / 0 0 10 40
FYV 51 31 56 34 / 0 0 0 30
BYV 50 32 56 36 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 55 32 55 37 / 0 0 10 60
MIO 54 34 57 34 / 0 0 0 20
F10 55 32 54 37 / 0 0 10 60
HHW 58 34 55 40 / 0 0 20 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14
