FXUS65 KLKN 252335
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
335 PM PST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON
HIGH PRESSURE AT 500MB LINGERING THRU THURSDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST OVER HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
OVERCAST FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST THRU NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TROF...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HISTORY OF MODEL RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TO
BRING IT THRU SLOWER AND WITH LESS QPF.

700MB TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BUT QPF WILL
BE LIMITED. A TRAILING VORT MAX ON SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY EASTERN HALF. 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
DUSTING FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
SATURDAY...WITH -8C TO -10C TEMPS AT 700MB THRU THE DAY. REA

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND 
LOOKS TO BE UNSEASONABLE COOL BY 5 DEGREES AND MOSTLY DRY...WITH A 
WARMING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE COLDER WEATHER 
RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVG IN THE 
EXTENDED WITH RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY CONTINUING...BUT OVERALL LONG 
TERM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE 
CONUS...TRANSITIONING TO A DEEP TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST.   

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MTN SNOW 
SHOWERS...BUT GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...SO HAVE BUMPED 
POPS DOWN. THE ORIGINAL REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH 
INTO THE BASE OF THE DESERT SW 500H LOW IS NOW BEING SHEARED APART 
IN THE DEVELOPING SPLIT-FLOW. WHAT LOOKS TO BE MORE CERTAIN IS COLD 
AND BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV WITH 
700MB WINDS NEAR 40KTS ON SUNDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY THE 500MB RIDGE 
SPILLS OVER THE DESERT SW CUT-OFF LOW. SURFACE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO 
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS 700MB TEMPS WARM WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH LARGE 
TIMING DIFFERENCES BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A 
CHANCE FOR AN ELKO COUNTY CLIPPER AND COLDER AIR RETURNING.    
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. VFR 
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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