FXUS63 KFGF 082004
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
204 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST IN REGARDS TO SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND THEN DEALING WITH TEMPS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR OUR FA SO NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED. 

TONIGHT...SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS STILL
ORGANIZING DOWN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE
QUITE A BIT OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS TO THE SOUTH. HOW IT
WILL AFFECT OUR FA IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT. STILL QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FA WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST FA. TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 10 BELOW AROUND CANDO
AND LANGDON. NOT REALLY TAPPING ANY SUBSTANTIAL CEILINGS IN THE
FAR SOUTH...WITH KJMS AND KBWP ONLY PICKING UP SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME SNOW IS FALLING AT KABR BUT CEILINGS ARE STILL
AT FOUR THOUSAND FEET AGL. MODELS STILL TRY TO PUSH UP SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN FA TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO). THEREFORE...AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THRU THE NIGHT...BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK TOO GREAT EITHER. THERE IS NOT MUCH SNOW
ON THE GROUND NOW IN THIS AREA...AND NOT SURE NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS. THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA OF WEST CENTRAL MN. OF COURSE
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS TEMPS FALL TONIGHT AND
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE...MOST OF THE FA WILL START TO FALL INTO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST
OF THE FA (EXCEPT THE FAR EAST) UNTIL 18Z WED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
TRENDS IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET PRETTY COLD IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
AGAIN TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...CLOUD TRENDS WILL STILL BE IMPORTANT FOR WED. IF THERE
IS MORNING CLEARING IN THE NORTHWEST FA...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE AFTERNOON THERE. HOWEVER WILL LET MID/DAY
CREWS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT. ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN FA. AFTER WED...THERE COULD BE SOME
FLURRIES AROUND BASICALLY ANYTIME...BUT PRETTY HARD TO NAIL THESE
DOWN. MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS/TEMPS...AND KEPT
NUDGING DOWN TEMPS THROUGHOUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST FA.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES OUT PAST 84 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...ECMWF/GEMS BLEND LOOKED BEST SO WENT WITH IT ATTM. SFC LOW 
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FA ON SAT BRINGING BEST CHANCES OF 
PCPN...ESPECIALLY TO NRN ZONES. BEHIND THE FRONT...REINFORCING SHOT 
OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA WILL TANK TEMPS AGAIN. ARCTIC HIGH 
PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE FA THRU REST OF PERIOD WITH SLOW 
RECOVERY OF TEMPS BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN 
PLACE. DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL 
SPREAD CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA...WITH MVFR CIGS AND -SN AFT 12Z IN 
ERN AND SERN TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR NDZ053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR MNZ001>004-007.

&&

$$

GODON/HOPKINS