FXUS64 KMAF 160248 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
848 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE TO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO BASED ON LATEST
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS AND INCOMING GUIDANCE. ALSO
TWEAKED SKY AND DEW POINT GRID.
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY.
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&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAFS SITES EXCEPT AT
KPEQ WHERE SOME STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z WHICH MAY REDUCE
CIGS BRIEFLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. VRF
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS NOSED INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...CLOUD COVER WAS PRETTY SPARSE EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
STOCKTON PLATEAU...BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. A WEAK CUTOFF
LOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND REGION WILL RESULT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND REACH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FEATURE...NOR MUCH CLOUD COVER EITHER. SINCE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND...WILL UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPING/STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SINCE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SUN AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS OVER THE
AREA IS NOT CLEAR. ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST MOST AREAS AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES...A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND THE HEART OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ENDS UP OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE WARMUP. SINCE AT LEAST MODEST
DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS...WILL TEND MORE TOWARD THE
RELATIVELY WARM MOS NUMBERS.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE U.S. PLAINS LATE THIS
WEEK...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL OF WEST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO SOME
LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS MAY WARM INTO THE 70S DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE WILL BE
INTERMINGLED WITH MORE OF A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS...LOWER HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WARMUP
SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL REALLY BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD WITH THE COLD AIR LASTING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHEEL AROUND A STRONG UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO TAKE UP TEMPORARY RESIDENCE OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WILL LEAVE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST DRY SINCE IT APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH ROOM
FOR ANY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ASIDE FROM SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 20 56 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 25 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 36 58 36 65 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 30 61 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 29 56 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 21 59 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 23 60 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 20 56 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 20 57 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 23 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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