FXUS63 KMPX 061300
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SOME WEAK CAA
STRATUS/FLURRIES WORKING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN MN THIS MORNING.
MAY WORK INTO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. WEAK TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER IA AND MN SRN MN OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT
MORE CONFLUENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO SNOW AREA SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY NARROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MAY
PICK UP A FLUFFY INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY MID LEVEL
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT MAY GENERATE A FEW
FLURRIES AS TROUGH EXITS TOT HE EAST. THIS HINTED AT IN THE NAM
BUFKIT PROFILES. COLD SFC RDG OVER THE OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MN THIS MORNING DID PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF SINGLE DIGITS
WITH A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE LOW SPOTS OF THE FAR WEST.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEST AND SHOULD WARM 
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE EAST. WILL COLD A BIT COLDER 
WEST.

NEXT SYSTEM IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE BUT THERE ARE A FEW MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN SFC LOW TRACK. 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR WITH TRACK NOW...FROM CO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA TUE
EVENING TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED. THIS TRACK IS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE CWA.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING 5TH PERIOD WATCH...BUT COLLABORATION YIELDED
STRONGLY WORDED HWO FOR NOW. SNOW SHOULD LIFT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND
SATURATION OCCURS. MAY TAK AWHILE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AS
ATMOSPHERE WILL BY RATHER DRY TO START OUT. SOLID 2-3 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD GENERATE SOME 6 INCH
VALUES. ONLY QUESTION IS THE SLR FOR THE STORM. MAY BY AVERAGE
MORE CLOSE TO 20:1 IN THE NORTHWEST AND AT LEAST 16:1 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INCREASE THE WINDS TUE NIGHT AS LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. ANY SNOW WILL BE BLOWN AROUND DURING THE
NIGHT AND INTO WED. QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY STORM WILL EXIT TOT EH
EAST WED. LEFT THE CURRENT TREND IN THE GRIDS NOW...WITH
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA DURING THE DAY. 

COLDER AIR WILL DROP IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE
FRESH SNOW COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW NORMAL THEN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
LOW CLOUDS- MVFR CEILING UNDER TWO THOUSAND FEET AGL CONTINUE TO 
SLIDE SOUTH OVER WEST CENTRAL MN AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MN TDA. 
CLOUDS WERE TRYING TO ADVANE SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL MN...BUT WERE 
BECOMING SUPPRESS AND IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. 
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE SOUTH NEAR KRWF THIS 
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 2-3 
THOUSAND FEET. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTH 
OF TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MVFR CIG AND WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ADVANCING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/JM