FXUS64 KCRP 012140
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...PRECIPITATION AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AS OF 21Z...THE PRECIP ENDING LINE WAS LOCATED FROM A
KERRVILLE TO HONDO TO LAREDO LINE. ASSUMING THE LINE MAINTAINS
CONSTANT MOTION...PRECIP SHOULD END ALONG HIGHWAY 16 BY
00Z...HIGHWAY 281 BY 01Z...HIGHWAY 77 BY 03Z...AND EAST OF PORT
O'CONNOR BY 05Z. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DRY WNWLY
CONTINENTAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DRAINAGE COOLING. AS A RESULT...FORECASTED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
MOS GUIDANCE. STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
SKIES SHOULD MAINLY CLEAR OUT OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AS A
RESULT...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE GENERATING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
PROCESSES DAMPENING AFTERNOON HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WRT A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THU
INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE BY FRI MORNING AND
WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGH THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP THU NIGHT AND INCREASE FRI AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC W/ A DEEPENING
STRONG UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NNW WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. DIDN'T QUITE BUY
INTO GFS POPS COMPLETELY...BUT DID RAISE TO LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL
BEND ON FRI DECREASING TO LOW CHC IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPR 30S ACROSS INLAND AREAS FRI AFTN AND THE
GFS SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE VERY BACK END OF
THE PRECIP COULD AFFECT NRN COS. THAT BEING SAID...THE GFS IS ALONE
IN SHOWING THE H85 FREEZING LINE WELL SOUTH INTO OUR CWA W/ THE NAM
AND ECMWF BOTH WARMER AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP
ATTM. THE UPR TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST RAPIDLY AD ALLOW DECREASING
CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO FALL AFTER SUNSET.
APPEARS A FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE REGION SAT MORNING W/
EVEN UPR 20S ACROSS THE NRN COS.
FORECAST BECOMES VERY MUDDLED BEYOND SAT AS A COASTAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVES NORTH
OVER THE SHALLOW COLD BUT MODIFYING AIRMASS. IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
QUICK ENOUGH...MORE COLD AIR COULD GET TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC AND
HIGHS COULD REALLY BE HELD DOWN SAT AND SUN. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
A S/WV MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN CAUSING RAIN TO BREAK
OUT ONCE AGAIN...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THESE
PERIODS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND KEPT THE
SLT CHC POPS GOING INTO TUE. AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SLOWLY W/ TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...CONTINUED SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COASTAL
LOW OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT.
&&
.TIDES...CONTINUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL COASTAL
FLOODING EVENT ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BARRIER ISLAND
WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVEL HAVE BEEN RUNNING
ABOUT 3/4 OF A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES...AND WITH THIS TIDE
LEVELS COULD BE NEAR 2 FEET MSL AT HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT
SELECTED SITES FOLLOW:
PORT ARANSAS:
HIGH AT 431 PM
PORT O'CONNOR:
HIGH AT 1047 PM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 44 63 45 60 44 / 50 0 10 10 30
VICTORIA 42 60 37 58 41 / 90 10 10 10 30
LAREDO 43 66 41 59 43 / 10 0 10 10 30
ALICE 43 65 40 60 42 / 30 0 10 10 30
ROCKPORT 48 62 46 59 45 / 70 10 10 10 30
COTULLA 38 66 37 58 40 / 10 0 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 41 65 40 60 44 / 30 0 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 48 63 48 59 48 / 60 0 10 10 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
TM/95...SHORT TERM
MG/88...LONG TERM
