FXUS61 KILN 040926
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD UPR LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN A WEDGE OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AND THUS...AM EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD UPR LVL TROF WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT NE TOWARD ERN CANADA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...AN
UPR LVL S/WV...LOCATED OVER NM/WRN TX THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ENE
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL SPREAD PCPN NE ACRS THE FOOT
HILL REGION AS WELL AS THE APPALACHIAN REGION TO OUR SE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP PCPN JUST TO THE SE OF
OUR CWFA. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MID TO HIGH LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL SPREAD NE ACRS THE ERN
FCST AREA TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH EARLY ON MONDAY FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS THAT ONCE WERE MORE IN LINE FOR THE STRONGER MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK SYSTEM HAVE NOW BEGUN TO DIVERGE ON LOW PLACEMENT...AND RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
WITH MAIN SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL START OUT WITH RAIN. WARMED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT
FOR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO NEWEST ECMWF WHICH HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FURTHER NW HOWEVER DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION AS IT IS
VASTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AROUND LONGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH COLD AIR
WRAPPING AROUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEREFORE HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN HAVING LIGHT SNOW MIX IN
AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS PERSISTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES AT 05Z FRI. THE LOW CLOUDS WERE PUSHING EAST WITH THE BACK
EDGE REACHING THE INDIANA...OHIO...KENTUCKY BORDER BY 06Z FRI.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH
OHIO AND KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE
KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
00Z SAT WITH JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME DAYTIME
VFR STRATOCUMULUS. STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
FRIDAY WILL CAUSE LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO THICKEN ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLE- CMH- CVG CORRIDOR
MAY SEE MID LEVEL CLOUD CIGS AFTER 06Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PARKER
