FXUS61 KBGM 052154
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
454 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING UP THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON WILL END THIS EVENING. COLD AIR BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW
WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF NEW
YORK LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SULLIVAN... DELAWARE... PIKE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. GOT SEVERAL
REPORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. RADAR LOOPS
INDICATE THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THAT
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS... BRINGING STORM
TOTALS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED 6 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE. REPORTS FROM AREA 911 CENTERS INDICATE THAT ROADWAY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY ACCIDENTS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THIS PRECIP ENDS A COLDER NW LL FLOW SETS UP. LAKE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
CENT NY. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE GREAT WITH THE LL
INVERSION AROUND 8K FT AND TEMP DIFFERENTIAL ONLY ENOUGH FOR
CONDITIONAL LAKE INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLOW SHIFTS FROM 310 LATE TONIGHT TO 280 SUNDAY. LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT NE INTO ONLY ONEIDA THEN STAY THERE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK TROF GOES THROUGH QUICKLY ON
ZONAL FLOW WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. LITTLE FORCING
AND MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. BRIEFLY ON THE BACK SIDE NW
CAA WILL SET UP SOME LAKE EFFECT MONDAY OVERNIGHT TO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ENDING THE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN U.S...STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
EURO/GFS/CANADIAN RUNS...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST THAT
THE MAIN PARENT LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST...THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...MICHIGAN...AND INTO EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...TO
VARYING DEGREES...THERE ARE HINTS OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD POINT TOWARDS SNOW AT THE
ONSET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A PROGGED STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SITUATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THESE KINDS OF EVENTS...WOULD IMPLY A
TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND THEN ULTIMATELY RAIN FOR
AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM...A MUCH COLDER WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN WILL SET IN FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WE'LL GO WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES...AS THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE GETS CRANKED UP THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS OVER TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST DIFFICULT
FORECAST IS OVER KRME/KSYR, AS SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD.
BOTH CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH PRECIP
TYPE LIGHT SNOW. FOR KBGM/KAVP, IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z THEN CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT KELM/KITH, MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING. AT KSYR/KRME,
FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 12Z
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT...VFR.
MON/MON NGT/TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE NGT...VFR.
WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN.
WED NGT/THU...MVFR IN SHOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
