FXUS62 KTBW 281412
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.UPDATE...WE DID NOT GET OPTIMUM CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS A DENSE PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD. IT WAS
STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST AS SEEN IN THE BROOKSVILLE AREA
ON LOCAL MEDIA STATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN THE BAY AREA STAYED
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
 
ONE VERY DENSE PATCH OF CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS ALL BUT LEE COUNTY
AT THIS TIME. I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCLUDE MORE CLOUD
COVER...BUT STILL DO NOT WANT TO SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE THESE
CLOUDS WILL THIN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. OVERALL WE WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND WILL WORD AS SUCH IN THE UPDATED ZONES.
 
STILL THINK WE WILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TO REACH OUR CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
 
LAST NIGHTS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN
THE COLDEST AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AGAIN. WILL WAIT TO SEE THE
12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE ADDING PATCHY FROST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW DOWN TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
AND SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FEET. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS WELL SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...12Z SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
2000 AND 2500 FEET. THIS COULD DELAY THE MIXING OF DRY AIR TO THE
SURFACE AND PUT OUR RED FLAG WARNING IN JEOPARDY. NONE OF THE
SURROUNDING STATIONS SHOWED THIS MOIST LAYER SO WILL ASSUME IT IS
A TRANSIENT FEATURE AND WILL KEEP WARNINGS AS THEY ARE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
AVIATION...MCMICHAEL