FXUS65 KABQ 091003
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
303 AM MST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX PATTERN FOR FCST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AS FLOW
ALOFT HAS DECREASED...DOWN ROUGHLY 30 KTS FROM EARLY TUE AT
700MB...WHILE REMAINING ZONAL IN NATURE. SFC WINDS TO BE
DRAMATICALLY LOWER THAN TUE...THOUGH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN ON THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES AS WELL AS A LITTLE WAYS E
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N MTNS
TODAY...BUT THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN UNTIL FRI OR SAT AT THE
EARLIEST. LOOKING AT SLOW MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERE AS WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. A FEW LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL AFFECT
THE STAE BY FRI TO SAT PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW ACTIVITY...MAINLY NW THIRD OR SO...HIGHER TERRAIN MORE SO
THAN LOWER. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT AREA FROM LATE SAT
INTO SUN NIGHT THOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. NOT AT ALL LIKELY TO BE AS STRONG AS THE MOST RECENT
STORM AND SHOULD AFFECT NW THIRD AND HIGHER TERRAIN THEREIN MORE
THAN ELSEWHERE.
43
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM TAOS TO HOBBS ADVANCING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
STALLING THROUGH 18Z...WITH OCCNL EXCURSIONS TO MVFR CIGS AT
AXX...LVS...TCC...AND ROW LIFTING BY 21Z TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR AND
OCCNL IFR CIGS FROM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEST TO ARIZONA LINE WILL
DISSIPATE BY 18Z THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MT TOP OBSCURATION
PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL GUST TO 40 KTS ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF
SUMMITS WITH WINDS DECREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. SHY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY...STRONG WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EASING ONLY GRADUALLY TODAY
WITH BREEZY LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND DOWNWIND SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN
THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TODAY REMAINING
BROADLY IN THE 20S AND 30S PCT...WITH 40S OVER RECENT SNOWFALL IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST POINTS.
THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO ZONAL AND EASING GRADUALLY WITH
CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. WESTERLY GUSTS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS AND DOWNWIND SLOPES WILL BE REDUCED
FURTHER IN DURATION AND COVERAGE FIRST SIGNS OF A WARMING TREND
WILL PUSH DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES INTO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP BOOST MINIMUM HUMIDITIES GENERALLY
INTO THE 30S..WITH SOME 20S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND 40S PCT
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES BROADLY IN THE 30S AND 40S PCT FOR THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND STALL...KEEPING CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD AND LIMITING AFTERNOON WARM UPS FOR THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
HUMIDITIES HOLDING STEADY. INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SERIES OF QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCES UNTIL MAIN TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED BOOSTS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES.
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING FROM CHIHUAHUA NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THE DAY.
SHY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 34 10 35 15 / 5 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 27 -4 31 3 / 5 0 5 10
CUBA............................ 32 0 34 9 / 5 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 36 3 38 12 / 0 0 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 35 8 37 13 / 0 0 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 37 5 41 14 / 0 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 40 11 45 15 / 0 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 48 18 52 24 / 0 0 5 5
CHAMA........................... 23 -9 29 -1 / 10 0 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 31 7 32 13 / 5 0 5 5
PECOS........................... 32 7 37 14 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 24 -11 27 -2 / 10 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 21 -12 28 -2 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 -13 27 -2 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 25 -3 29 2 / 5 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 35 7 38 12 / 5 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 30 9 34 17 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 12 36 19 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 20 41 23 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 22 42 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 15 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 21 42 24 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 16 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 20 42 23 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 50 21 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 11 39 16 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 13 39 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 15 33 18 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 22 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 22 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 44 24 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 25 -1 32 11 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 27 2 34 9 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 31 12 36 16 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 8 34 19 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 30 14 36 19 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 17 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 21 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 15 43 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 40 20 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 41 21 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 46 20 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 49 27 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 52 27 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 27 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
43/SHY
