FXUS62 KTBW 101432
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION AT THIS
TIME WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND BOUNDARY HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN
THROUGH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS
SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING OCCURRING BEHIND BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS LOOKS RATHER LOW SO WILL ADJUST POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA DOWN TO CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ALREADY ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO OTHER BIG CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE VSBY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. LINE OF SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL SAG IN ACROSS TPA/PIE
AND THEN STALL WITH VICINITY SHRA ALL TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WATERS WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING BEHIND IT. STILL SOME SEA FOG AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 50 65 58 / 70 20 30 40
FMY 80 60 73 61 / 40 20 30 40
GIF 74 51 65 57 / 70 20 30 40
SRQ 74 55 69 59 / 60 20 30 40
BKV 74 43 61 54 / 70 20 30 40
SPG 73 54 65 60 / 70 20 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...09/RUDE
